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Evil-Eye

11-17-2008, 06:05 PM

Well, I have a one triggers all on DDM set down near it's all time low. It has a little more to go to get there so we shall see.

http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/5664/ddm111708im5.png (http://img241.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm111708im5.png)

I think they call that some kind of window in Japanese Candlesticks. My Steve Nison video's have not arrived yet so I can't tell you just yet. I call it a gap down.

Now I was looking for something to do while I was testing my crisis plan. I was calling my mental health professional who told me to call if I were in crisis. I got his voice mail instead. I am glad that wasn't am actual emergency. This is what I came across this:

FAS

The Direxion Financial Bull 3X - Triple-Leveraged ETF is designed to yield investment results approximately equivalent to triple (300%) the return of an investment in the Russell 1000 Financials Index, which tracks financial-related securities in the Russell 1000 Index. For example, if the underlying index gains 1%, this fund should gain approximately 3%.

Holly smoke, I must have died and gone to heaven. This thing is brand new. At first look I thought this was a loser's bet.

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/4978/fas1111708ls8.png (http://img99.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas1111708ls8.png)

Then I broke it down a little. It looks a little better.

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/7898/fas2111708mb7.png (http://img99.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas2111708mb7.png)

This doesn't look too bad.

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/1489/fas3111708ha0.png (http://img99.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3111708ha0.png)

Look at that volume end of day. Wow, it looked like a nice blow off bottom except for it was the end of day so I will have to wait and see. This seems to be a good swing setup.

If anyone would like to add an observations please feel free to make them.

Evil-Eye

11-18-2008, 09:32 PM

I was in FAS yesterday and got a sick feeling this morning. I saw the light and escaped with a very small loss. I had orders in a different levels for DDM. I got impatient and moved one order up which went off. DDM then came down to the first order level and I thought why did I not stick with the original plan. The other two orders did not go off but with the late day rally I did OK.

I set up my orders in the early morning hours as I have to work for a living. Conditional orders are nice except when I had to cancel some in the early morning hours. The cancel order was pending and would not let me put in the new orders. E Trade people do not get to work when I need them to. |-{

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/796/ddm111808kq8.png (http://img253.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm111808kq8.png)

Evil-Eye

11-19-2008, 09:18 PM

Wow, what a day. DDM showed some good signals but then Citi went to hell. I had two limits go off with one at the bottom. I didn't think that would ever go off but it did. If we get a snap back tomorrow with a little profit I will take it. The financial sector will need a miracle at this point.

http://img508.imageshack.us/img508/2246/ddm111908dq1.png (http://img508.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm111908dq1.png)

I thought we were forming a solid base but I was wrong again. That's what I get for thnking. :biggrin:

Evil-Eye

11-21-2008, 06:07 AM

I jumped out near the high of the day. A few observations.

http://img227.imageshack.us/img227/5143/ddm112008nd7.png (http://img227.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm112008nd7.png)

Weekly showing some good signs.

http://img249.imageshack.us/img249/8451/ddm112008weeklyym5.png (http://img249.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm112008weeklyym5.png)

Hopefully this was the blow off bottom on the weekly.

Evil-Eye

11-23-2008, 08:29 PM

Well, that was an exciting close on Friday. Too bad I missed it. I still didn't loose anything.

http://img386.imageshack.us/img386/9031/ddm112108or6.png (http://imageshack.us)

Backed up time to the daily time frame.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/9548/112108ddm2im3.png (http://img101.imageshack.us/my.php?image=112108ddm2im3.png)

Backed up to the weekly

http://img389.imageshack.us/img389/3117/ddm1121083weeklykg1.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

What I am thinking could happen and I am operating like it will happen is that this will go up on monday but the rest of the week will be down on low volume due to the Holiday. That's what I think is going to happen. That and $1.25 will get you a cup of coffee at the 7-11. I will attempt to pick up some shares on a low limit.

Evil-Eye

11-25-2008, 07:50 PM

Well, I was a little off on my prediction but if someone would stay off the TV we might get some predictable signals. |-{

http://img392.imageshack.us/img392/1764/ddm112508ia4.png (http://imageshack.us)

I may have to quit my day job to sit home and day trade this.

Evil-Eye

11-25-2008, 09:13 PM

These are some "Good" basic examples of technical chart terminology in action.

This is called a Gap Down.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/6507/gapdownvx9.png (http://img210.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gapdownvx9.png)

This was not a good month to own this. :sick:

This would be a good example of a short squeeze.

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/1889/shortsqrq7.png (http://img210.imageshack.us/my.php?image=shortsqrq7.png)

This is a Gap Up.

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/5407/gapupvb8.png (http://img243.imageshack.us/my.php?image=gapupvb8.png)

Evil-Eye

11-26-2008, 05:33 AM

General Market info.

YouTube - Stock Market Trend Analysis 11/25/08 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sx8QV-QkG9o)

I am starting to look at the heavy construction companies if Obama follows through on his rebuilding the infrastructure of the US. Here are some symbols in no particular order.

FLR
CBI
MVCO
URS
GVA
ACM
JEC
PCR

These are in no particular order and you need to do your Due Diligence.

In looking for an ETF play I could not find one that was a US only ETF for that sector. There are a few global ones. Here is an article I found while searching.

Stimulus Plan May Lift Infrastructure Plays at SmartMoney.com (http://www.smartmoney.com/Investing/Mutual-Funds/Stimulus-Plan-May-Lift-Infrastructure-Plays/?afl=yahoo)

Evil-Eye

11-26-2008, 07:45 PM

Nice day for this starting with the gap down. Depending on the time frame of your trading, you could have captured a good 2.5/ shr gain on this in a day trade. The below is a 15 minute chart which is not a day traders chart in my opinion but not a swing traders chart either. I like to swing trade but have not recently because of the instability. 15 Minutes would have kept me in it all day if I had been in it.

http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/9408/ddm112608vu3.png (http://imageshack.us)

This is too short and would have busted you out a couple of times. That and I can not see the candle sticks.

http://img201.imageshack.us/img201/1671/ddm1126081minkq8.png (http://img201.imageshack.us/my.php?image=ddm1126081minkq8.png)
Your watching the ADX switching between the stokes and the MACD trying to figure out if your range bound or in a trend. Too much work. |-{ The longer time frame is a little easier but you could lose more $$ because of the slower signals. Just my thoughts.

Evil-Eye

12-01-2008, 06:34 AM

Looking at the futures this morning and the decreasing volume it looks to be a sellers day. This could be setting up a double bottom or an inverse head and shoulders. If it is an inverse head and shoulders the neck line would be sloping downward on the daily time frame. This is just speculation.

Evil-Eye

12-02-2008, 06:31 AM

The gap up from last week has not been filled yet. I am thinking it will get filled today unless Obama gets on TV again.

http://img355.imageshack.us/img355/9347/ddm120108to7.png (http://imageshack.us)

Oil Lower:
Bloomberg.com: News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=a7yIo27RX5cQ)

Boeing avoids strike:
Bloomberg.com: News (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=alB9gsAIK3.M)

Something to look at and get ready for:

I would not go long in this yet unless you can baby sit the trade. There are counter trend rallies and with the up coming OPEC meeting we should see another counter trend rally. I saw that 40% of the oil comes from OPEC. I saw the other day where February 25 Puts were the third most active options for the day. It should make for some good trading. Oil usually goes down now and up in the spring and summer so take it for what it's worth.
http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/1262/dxo120108gi5.png (http://img247.imageshack.us/my.php?image=dxo120108gi5.png)

I am thinking the Financial should be the first to recover so just start watching it. There needs to be time for all the analysts to start under estimating earnings so they can start announcing the earnings surprises. :sick:
http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/5655/uyg12208yd8.png (http://img247.imageshack.us/my.php?image=uyg12208yd8.png)

And this is for the Crystal Meth traders who find the usual indexes boring.

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/426/fas120108if9.png (http://img247.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas120108if9.png)

http://img247.imageshack.us/img247/7461/faz120108ly7.png (http://img247.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz120108ly7.png)

If anyone has not seen this guys site I would recommend it to anyone that wants to learn.
InformedTrades: Free Stocks, Forex, Gold Trading Learning & Education - Free Trading School (http://www.informedtrades.com/trades.php?page=school)

Evil-Eye

12-03-2008, 08:06 PM

Sorry for the technical difficulties. I am working on it.

Evil-Eye

12-05-2008, 04:19 AM

This was a nice little run over two days. This gave some nice signals.

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/9095/fas120408qs9.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

thegreatgate

12-06-2008, 03:12 PM

This is a nice article on 3X ETF's, see chart on FAS:
Bespoke Investment Group: 3X ETFS On Fire (http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2008/11/3x-etfs-on-fire.html)

Evil-Eye

12-08-2008, 09:17 PM

Thanks Great.

I tightened the stop and canceled a buy order today based on this gap up. The stop went off so I am out. I am concerned that this will fall back on profit taking. I think over the long term the long side is the best. Short term may be on the side or FAZ.

Evil-Eye

12-09-2008, 08:14 PM

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/3328/fas12908jc1.th.png (http://img338.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas12908jc1.png)

Evil-Eye

12-10-2008, 08:58 PM

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/9305/121008fascp4.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

2.5 point swing today.

Evil-Eye

12-13-2008, 10:37 AM

This has had some nice swings. I think it is setting up for another.

http://img509.imageshack.us/img509/6092/fas121208ib9.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Some how my postings are disappearing.

Evil-Eye

12-13-2008, 03:43 PM

Next week there are 2 or 3 earnings releases for component companies.

Evil-Eye

12-15-2008, 05:53 AM

Fed Could Remake Credit Card Regulations
New Rules Would Ban Retroactive Rate Hikes

The Federal Reserve on Thursday will vote on sweeping reform of the credit card industry that would ban practices such as retroactively increasing interest rates at will and charging late fees when consumers are not given a reasonable amount of time to make payments.

The Fed, which has been considering the proposed changes since May, declined this week to release details of the final draft regulations. But banking officials and consumer advocates said that they do not expect substantial changes before the vote, especially since members of Congress have pressured the Fed not to water down the rules.

However, industry officials and consumer advocates said, the Fed will likely postpone a decision on a proposal to prohibit banks from charging fees for overdraft protection unless they have given customers the chance to opt out. Both the banking industry and consumer advocates considered the overdraft proposal flawed.

If the new credit card regulations are approved largely as proposed, they would represent the most significant overhaul of the industry in decades, banking officials and consumer advocates said. The Fed has not yet indicated a timeline for implementation.

Fed Could Remake Credit Card Regulations - washingtonpost.com (http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/12/13/AR2008121300906.html)

Evil-Eye

12-16-2008, 10:45 PM

I tried to post this yesterday but ImageShack did not cooperate. Hopefully this will run to 32 again. If it can get through 32 then 40's is the next area of resistance.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/628/fas121608ic4.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Pivot Points for tomorrow.

S3 - 17.88
S2 - 19.60
S1 - 22.84
PP 24.56
R1 - 27.80
R2 - 29.52
R3 - 32.76

Evil-Eye

12-22-2008, 10:07 PM

I did not get time to post this earlier. I figure the market is going to sink on (Holiday) lite volume. This went up and hit the R1 on the 17th and did not make it back. So, that looked like it worked. This gave 3 good sell signals. I am leaning to the down side until after the holidays. The dilemma is what time frame is best to use for swing trades. It's between 15 and 30 minutes. 15 would have whipped you a bit the past two days.

http://img187.imageshack.us/img187/697/fas122208ih5.th.png (http://img187.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas122208ih5.png)

Evil-Eye

12-25-2008, 08:17 PM

If you could have got in around 20.5 that would looks to be the optimal number. I am close to that number but I should have waited longer. I wasn't paying attention to this as hard as I should have been. I am usually quick to pull the trigger when I should have waited and slow to pull the trigger when I should have acted quicker. The blue arrows are the signals I picked up on along with the trend line break. I wasn't expecting the up day on the short trading day. Obama should be saying something about the new and improved stimulus package soon. Also Mortgage apps are up in my area according to people I know in the business. There has been some recent real estate activity.

http://img101.imageshack.us/img101/3368/fas122508pd6.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

12-28-2008, 02:13 PM

http://img254.imageshack.us/img254/1124/fas122608qk9.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

One thing that stands out is the Bollinger Band width. I think this is one of those "back the truck up" situations.

Profiting From The Squeeze (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/04/030304.asp)

Something else to read if you care to.
Advantages of TRIX - Triple Exponential Average (http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/02/092402.asp)

Evil-Eye

12-30-2008, 06:31 AM

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/6869/fas122908lv4.png (http://imageshack.us)

This gave another opportunity to get in below the 20.50 level. I was surprised that it did recover towards the end. With the light holiday volume I didn't think there would be any rebound. I have noticed that between one and two in the afternoon seems to be the time when this turns.

Evil-Eye

12-30-2008, 07:01 AM

Six new triple leveraged funds. :)

ETF.com - information about ETFs, exchange-traded funds (http://etf.com/?p=4775?)

Evil-Eye

12-30-2008, 07:28 PM

Nice day today. I was surprised by the EOD volume. If it holds the trend line it could be to 24 by tomorrrow. I think if it gaps down to the trend line and runs up it will do that. If it gaps up I think it will be a different story. I would look to put my stop under the trend line. There is a lot of chatter about the end of year rally which did not seem to happen because of the Dow chemical news. Then there is the January effect. :~/ What is a tradorvestor to do. :rotfl:

http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/3264/fas123008cy4.png

They were just reporting the terrible snow storms in Fargo North Dakota like that is something new there. Hello, that is why most people in the US do not live there.....because it's cold and it snows there...:lol:

Evil-Eye

12-31-2008, 10:04 PM

This had another nice day. I was worried it wouldn't get through the $24 resistance at lunch time. That dip on the last bar busted me out but it was a good run. The trend line is still good but I am hesitant to jump back in when the MACD is where it is and FAZ looks like its ready to pop.

http://img120.imageshack.us/img120/1061/fas123108sk4.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img243.imageshack.us/img243/615/faz123108lu3.png

Evil-Eye

01-02-2009, 12:14 PM

A lot of orders at the higher end of 23 to buy and high end 27 to sell.

Evil-Eye

01-03-2009, 04:39 PM

I am seeing signs that this run is close to it's end.

http://img166.imageshack.us/img166/2121/1209fasjn6.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Then I look at it's inverse.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/1952/faz1209sh3.png

Evil-Eye

01-06-2009, 09:16 PM

http://img56.imageshack.us/img56/1576/faz1609mb8.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/5884/fas1609dc2.png

FAZ was looking good the other day but FAS is still hanging in there. I had an (FAZ) order below the lower BB and moved it up a little after a day. It still would not have went off if I had not moved it up but I think keeping it outside the lower BB would have been a better entry. I moved it in towards the middle of the BB.

Evil-Eye

01-07-2009, 06:24 PM

Today was a nice day. Employment comes out on Friday. More layoffs announced adding to down side pressure.

http://img399.imageshack.us/img399/917/faz1709iu1.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

01-08-2009, 06:37 AM

I will start to look to re enter this when the MACD starts to cross. Right now that does not look to happen until around 20 - 21 area. Friday is the employment number and that may be a climax day. Futures are down today and the world markets are all negative so I feel comfortable where I am. I will not add to the position nor sell. I will use a (hidden) fixed stop this time and see how does. I don't know if a hidden stop is needed in an index but I will use one because I can.

I'll buy on the cross as long as the MACD is below 0 on the cross. I will look towards the lower BB to enter and the trend line has broken. If there is a hammer through the lower BB and the above is true see that as a stronger signal.

One thing I learned is that E trade has a 100% margin requirement on this. No 50%, not that I was looking to use margin but FYI. I am only trading small on this because of the volatility and the fact I can not manage the trades during market hours.

http://img184.imageshack.us/img184/6269/fas1709mc2.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

01-09-2009, 09:48 AM

This looks like a whip.
30 min
http://img78.imageshack.us/img78/9507/faz180930minxs1.png

This looks better.
60min
http://img114.imageshack.us/img114/3298/faz180960minrk9.png

Daily
http://img126.imageshack.us/img126/9937/1809dailylh5.png

I am still holding for now. FAS closed around the mid 22 support level after passing through it.

Evil-Eye

01-09-2009, 11:33 PM

15% on FAZ in a week. I am thinking it will congest a little higher but I am not greedy. I got back into FAS near the close of the day. I still have an unfilled order below 20.

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/9927/fas1908eu3.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

01-13-2009, 07:14 AM

Well, it went down a little farther then I thought it would. |-{

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/7632/fas11209ro9.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

The last hour gave me hope for a better week.

Evil-Eye

01-16-2009, 08:55 PM

I violated my own rule. I anticipated the MACD cross thinking I knew better. I didn't and I had to suffer the pain and agony all the way down. To add insult to injury I did not jump back in after I was busted out of FAZ. I made some $$ on FAZ so I am not totally disappointed. I think I should stick with the fixed stops and adjust after close instead of the trailing sell stop.

Two things that I feel good about. One, I never trade with all my money. I never go all in either. This is not marginable with e trade so there is no margin to use to double down. The second is I successfully used a trailing buy stop to get me in a a good price. I am sub $12 on almost half my position. So if this goes back to the mid twenties I am retiring from my real job. :rotfl: Not really, but wishful thinking.

I like the trailing buy stop better then the trailing sell stop. There is a smoother line going down then going up.

Another important item I did not do was to back up the time frame and use the triple time frame. 30 min, 60 min and daily. I didn't look at the daily. I used the thirty and the sixty but not the daily.

Evil-Eye

01-19-2009, 05:57 PM

They certainly beat the market down in preparation of this.

Wall Street's inauguration rally - Jan. 19, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/19/markets/market_firstyear/index.htm)

Evil-Eye

01-19-2009, 05:59 PM

Senate vote fails, Obama gets $350B - Jan. 15, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/01/15/news/economy/senate_tarp_vote/index.htm?postversion=2009011518)

thegreatgate

01-20-2009, 11:15 AM

I got into FAS today:

First I bought in at $9.95 for my dads account...I watched it climb as high as $10.60, then it dropped back down to just under $10 so I got in at $10.01 for my account.

Risky play, but I'm expecting a big rally coming this week. It feels like it has been 3 straight weeks of down days.

thegreatgate

01-20-2009, 11:33 AM

thegreatgate

01-20-2009, 02:24 PM

Wow this is painful. Anyone else in FAS? Just hit $8.33. If it drops again tomorrow to around $7 I might just say screw it and go all in. I will be stuck in this for a while!!!

thegreatgate

01-20-2009, 05:06 PM

Closed at $7.63 (-40.44%), I never would have imagined that an ETF would lose more than 40% of its value in one day! I got in around $10 when FAS was down over 22%.

Just trying to tell myself that exactly 2 weeks ago FAS was over $25 a share! It moves very fast, so hopefully we'll be back in the double digits within a week.

thegreatgate

01-21-2009, 09:01 AM

FAS at about $8.15 or up 7% in the pre-market.........Would love a close of >$8.50

Jason Kelly (http://www.jasonkelly.com)
Here's what gives me confidence to buy more. Using UYG as a proxy because we have more data on it and it follows the same sector as FAS, we see that the last time we saw a drop this hard this fast was the November low. In the two trading sessions of Nov. 19 and 20, it dropped 22% to $3.74 and an RSI of 28. In the following five sessions, it gained 68%. In those same five sessions, FAS gained 110%.

Fast forward to now. In the last two sessions, UYG has dropped 31% to $2.73 and an RSI of 26. Since Jan. 6, it's down 55%. Our own FAS has dropped 44% in the last two sessions to $7.63 and an RSI of 30. Since Jan. 6, it's down 71%.

Those drops and those RSIs show oversold and ready to bounce, just as they did on Nov. 20. What's more, the contrary indicators show overbought and ready to crash, just as they did on Nov. 20. SKF, the -2x Financials ProShare, topped out on Nov. 20 at $262 and an RSI of 74 after running up 137% in 12 sessions. Yesterday, it closed at $199 and an RSI of 74 after running up 96% in 9 sessions.

thegreatgate

01-21-2009, 06:42 PM

Wow this is painful. Anyone else in FAS? Just hit $8.33. If it drops again tomorrow to around $7 I might just say screw it and go all in. I will be stuck in this for a while!!!

Pardon my French but holy shi+ that was fast!!!
I got in 3 hours too early yesterday at $9.95ish, 3 hours later it got as low as $7.50:(...

Current price FAS in after hours is $10.37....Two more days of this and FAS will be +$15:dance:

Evil-Eye

01-21-2009, 09:40 PM

I have been holding tight with what I got. It's a leveraged index fund. If the management company can hold it together and not get liquidated for some reason the price will be back. If the index goes to zero you still don't have anything to worry about because the country's currency will be worthless. That is my opinion. A couple of large insider buys should help tomorrow. You could double your money in less then a month.

thegreatgate

01-22-2009, 02:50 PM

I bought a little more FAS today....My average is now $9.54

My dad's account is averaged in at $9.24

One good rally tomorrow and we both will be celebrating!!

Evil-Eye

01-22-2009, 07:48 PM

I bought a little more FAS today....My average is now $9.54

My dad's account is averaged in at $9.24

One good rally tomorrow and we both will be celebrating!!

That looks good, better then me. I am not buying any more until I feel better about this bottom. We will see a rise after earnings releases are over. Then its how far up will the index trade before it gets into another trading range. It formed a symmetrical triangle in the longer time frame. I missed that and that was a costly mistake.

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/7213/12209dayha9.png (http://imageshack.us)

Then you see the main trend line has not been broken yet.

http://img150.imageshack.us/img150/3922/1220960minzp2.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

With in the congestion you have these bump and run reversals which is making day traders money but not swing traders unless you were short (FAZ) until yesterday. It looks like higher lows are starting but lower highs are also forming. My fear is the break will be to the down side.

http://img183.imageshack.us/img183/3339/1220910minsm7.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

The upside will come when Obama starts on the new and improved banking plan next week.

thegreatgate

01-23-2009, 10:25 AM

Note to all SMC members----You want to talk about a thrilling stock, something that is explosive? FAS is the place to be.

January 6th = +$26
January 9th = +$20
January 14th = +$15
January 16th = $12.81
January 20th = $7.63
January 21st = $9.90 (after hours up to $10.40)
January 23rd = $8 current pps (record low set today at $7.22)

With average volume of over 17 million, this stock is wild and crazy. This thing moves like a madman. What is most reassuring about this stock, is that the markets are hit hard again today with the DOW down over 150 points but FAS is only down 5.5%. On Tuesday when the DOW shred 330 points FAS lost 40% of its value in one day.

I would be willing to bet that 98% of anyone in FAS is not in with a price of less than $9, most not in under double digits (it just broke double digits on Tuesday) so now is the chance for buying FAS under or close to $8.

If you think there will be a change of direction from having the DOW above 9,030 points on January 6th but under 8,000 points on January 23rd (2 weeks, 3 days later) then hop on board with FAS. I can promise only one thing: the price you see right now is not going to be the price on Monday or Tuesday (it moves that fast). If FAS closes today at $8 and we have an up day Monday/Tuesday, we could easily be back above double digits.

This thing soars on up days so I believe it is very good opportunity to get into this 300% the financials ETF. One last thing, don't worry about whether you get in at $8.20 or $7.90 or whatever, a few pennies is not going to make a difference with this freak of nature. Just get in, buckle your safety belts, and enjoy the ride up!

thegreatgate

01-27-2009, 10:59 AM

Tomorrow will be a critical day for FAS (Wells Fargo Company reports tomorrow). WFC is up about 4% right now. IMHO if it's good news FAS should close over $10....bad news and FAS will close around $7.

I'm hoping for a good report with the DOW closing up around 400 points and FAS closing around $10.75!!!!!!

thegreatgate

01-27-2009, 05:09 PM

FAS closed at $9.30. It has a nice pop going on in the after hours. Ask $9.95, Bid $9.91

WFC up 3% in after hours
BAC closed at $6.50 and is $6.94 in after hours
C closed at $3.55 and is $3.72 in after hours

thegreatgate

01-28-2009, 09:14 AM

Going for about $11.25 pre-market (I saw as high as $11.70).

Here are FAS and FAZ's top 30 holdings:

http://i106.photobucket.com/albums/m254/nathan_211/Finances/3xfinancialkn3.png

Evil-Eye

01-28-2009, 09:37 PM

Nice posts thanks

thegreatgate

01-30-2009, 10:30 AM

Evil-Eye

02-01-2009, 08:29 PM

Close on Wednesday: $12.33
Close on Thursday: $9.88
Current Price: $9.42

I know this doesn't follow the DJIA but the DJIA is sitting at 8,088. Pretty much anyway you look at it when the DJIA gets back up to 9,000 FAS will be well over $17, at least that is my estimation. And that should occur sometime within the next month or 2. It seems to be around 8500 on the Dow when this is at 17 or so. Next week there should be some action on the stimulus plan. The financial's seem to be congesting in the area they are in now. After the earnings season is over we should be good to go. Negative sentiment and decreased volatility take the wind out of the leverage to the up side.

Last week I was watching a descending triangle forming that did not materialize. I thought the Dow was headed back to the 7500 level. The spring is coming and the housing market should be picking up a little. Refi's are going which will add to the $$ for finance companies.

thegreatgate

02-04-2009, 07:33 PM

We are stuck trading sideways for the moment. A bit of good news for us: One of FAS's top holders (Visa Inc.) said Wednesday its fiscal first-quarter profit rose by 35 percent. Visa is up over 7.5% after hours.

....JP Morgan is holding strong and Morgan Stanley is doing marvelous (up over 5% on a day like today). We just need BAC (set record low today) and WFC to get back into the swing of things and we will be all set.

There should be some excitement tomorrow, Friday, and Monday about what Team Obama will do with these banks that will hopefully get them rallying again.

Evil-Eye

02-05-2009, 09:30 PM

This sector is holding back waiting for the announcement on the 2nd half of TARP. The stimulus package is supposed to be announced first then TARP part 2. I loved the CEO cap on pay and the restricted stock rules. The scum suckers are worried about that. Goldman wants to give back their free government money.

UPDATE 2-Goldman Sachs CFO seeks to repay TARP funds | Reuters (http://uk.reuters.com/article/bondsNews/idUKN0428223120090204)

Evil-Eye

02-07-2009, 07:13 PM

Funny thing happened today. I received an piece of mail from Capital One which looked like another piece of marketing junk. I opened it and much to my surprise it was a rate increase letter. In the letter it stated that my basic rate was going to 17.9%. I have had Capital One of about 15 years or so. In that time I have never been 30 days or more late. I had missed the due date probably 2 times since I have had the card. I have paid the late fee and never complained. Well, I quickly paid my small balance and called to close the account. The woman who answered seemed nice and asked why I was closing the account. I advised her I was opting out of the changes to the card which in their own words meant closing the account. I asked her if she could tell me when the last time I was late and she said she would look. She advised that there were no latenesses with in the last 12 months. She said but she could only see back 12 months. Well, not late in at least 12 months and that's what they do???

Good bye Capital One. I now think that Capital One will be going out of business soon.

Evil-Eye

02-18-2009, 06:15 AM

It seems to be around 8500 on the Dow when this is at 17 or so. Next week there should be some action on the stimulus plan. The financial's seem to be congesting in the area they are in now. After the earnings season is over we should be good to go. Negative sentiment and decreased volatility take the wind out of the leverage to the up side.

Last week I was watching a descending triangle forming that did not materialize. I thought the Dow was headed back to the 7500 level. The spring is coming and the housing market should be picking up a little. Refi's are going which will add to the $$ for finance companies.

It looks like the descending triangle came true.

thegreatgate

02-18-2009, 10:23 AM

Evil-Eye

02-18-2009, 08:54 PM

EvilEye---What are your plans for FAS and where do you think it is going? It's at like $5.50. Just my guess, but $4.50--$4.75 would have to be the absolute bottom unless we are entering the GD2, then it could practically go to zero.

I got out a week or two ago but I re-entered last Thursday at $8.... This has been a hell of a start to 2009. All the financials are way down. This can move quickly in either direction. The beginnings of the week are never a good measure of anything. All the pent up emotions from the weekend. I personally am holding tight. This is why, this is an index fund. My only fear is that the management company of FAS will implode. I have no evidence of this but that is my only fear. If the other financial indexes were going up and this were going down then I would be worried. However I looked at UYG and I see basically the same chart.

http://img503.imageshack.us/img503/1475/uyg21809cu6.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img13.imageshack.us/img13/9592/fasday21809un3.png

The BB's are low which is a good sign also. I think we are going sideways for a while. Then up.

As far as what I think? I am holding tight. I figure it this way. If the banks go, our money will be worth nothing anyway. You will only lose what you would have lost anyway. The dollar is the dollar. There is nothing to back it like gold. It's only the stock value of our country. We can print dollars like mad because the rest of the world is in the crapper that much worse. Most other counries were printing money as fast as we were so guess what. It doesn't really matter how much we are printing as long as everyone else is printing money. Get ready for bond defaults next.

The only real answer is to create a new currency and start over again.

Evil-Eye

02-19-2009, 07:15 AM

Bloomberg.com: U.S. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=adtt9PpAA4fQ&refer=news)

Evil-Eye

02-19-2009, 07:17 AM

Bloomberg.com: Futures (http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/stocks/futures.html)

thegreatgate

02-19-2009, 03:23 PM

We are so screwed it is not even funny. $5.18 and probably headed to the $4's before close or tomorrow. I remember buying UYG for $5 not too long ago.

I thought $8 was ridiculously low and went in on some margin so I will be miserable for the next few trading sessions. I can deal with FAS higher than $6 but the low $5's are really painful. :-||

thegreatgate

02-20-2009, 09:43 AM

Hit $4.20 in the first minutes of trading!

What do you think Evil-Eye? Is $4.20 going to be the bottom or is FAS just beginning to decline? I'm down so much that part of me wants to just sign up for the military and come back in a couple years when hopefully I will have made my money back or a small profit.

I didn't take my same day/10% profit last Thursday ($8 to $8.80) and now, even if FAS doubles, it still wouldn't be at $8.80. What I could have made in one day is going to end up taking months now.

Believe it or not, we were +$11 last Tuesday....+$8 last Friday.....+$7 on Tuesday....$6 on Wednesday...$5 on Thursday...Now $4.50 today. When is the bleeding going to stop.

thegreatgate

02-20-2009, 01:17 PM

Just broke $4.......There goes all my gains from last year.

Weirdharold

02-20-2009, 04:32 PM

Hopefully with the fed and white house stating today that private banking will remain a part of our banking system this should begin a turn next week. Everyone was (is) so worried about nationalization of the banking system there is no confidence.

I am thinking (hoping) that todays low will be the bottom of this beaten horse.

What do you think Evil?

Evil-Eye

02-20-2009, 04:35 PM

The stock market is a wealth transference system. Money goes from the weak hands to the strong. Don't listen to the BS. I like the BS rumor about the Nationalization of the banking system. You want to see some action wait until they put a short term stop on shorts for the banking stocks. Sorry but I have been a little busy. I am holding tight. I am still eyeing for a rebound.

Do what you need to do but I am still in and holding. This is an index not an individual stock. Different dynamic then an individual stock. If you have no read Alexander Elder I would strongly suggest it.

Also, I read on a Google BB about how FAS could be disappear because of the swaps and options. Well, I didn't break it to the mental midget but this has an inverse fund for a reason. It trades with it's inverse self.

Good luck and happy trading.

Evil-Eye

02-21-2009, 09:58 AM

Primary Bear Market - Stage 1 - Distribution
Just as accumulation is the hallmark of the first stage of a primary bull market, distribution marks the beginning of a bear market. As the "smart money" begins to realize that business conditions are not quite as good as once thought, they start to sell stocks. The public is still involved in the market at this stage and become willing buyers. There is little in the headlines to indicate a bear market is at hand and general business conditions remain good. However, stocks begin to lose a bit of their luster and the decline begins to take hold.

While the market declines, there is little belief that a bear market has started and most forecasters remain bullish. After a moderate decline, there is a reaction rally (secondary move) that retraces a portion of the decline. Hamilton noted that reaction rallies during bear markets were quite swift and sharp. As with his analysis of secondary moves in general, Hamilton noted that a large percentage of the losses would be recouped in a matter of days or perhaps weeks. This quick and sudden movement would invigorate the bulls to proclaim the bull market alive and well. However, the reaction high of the secondary move would form and be lower than the previous high. After making a lower high, a break below the previous low would confirm that this was the second stage of a bear market.

Primary Bear Market - Stage 2 - Big Move
As with the primary bull market, stage two of a primary bear market provides the largest move. This is when the trend has been identified as down and business conditions begin to deteriorate. Earnings estimates are reduced, shortfalls occur, profit margins shrink and revenues fall. As business conditions worsen, the sell-off continues.

Primary Bear Market - Stage 3 - Despair
At the top of a primary bull market, hope springs eternal and excess is the order of the day. By the final stage of a bear market, all hope is lost and stocks are frowned upon. Valuations are low, but the selling continues as participants seek to sell no matter what. The news from corporate America is bad, the economic outlook bleak and not a buyer is to be found. The market will continue to decline until all the bad news is fully priced into stocks. Once stocks fully reflect the worst possible outcome, the cycle begins again.

Dow Theory - StockCharts.com (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theor y#primary_bear_market_2)

I thinkith we are somewhere at the end of 2 and the beginning of three. This is probably the opportunity of a lifetime.

Evil-Eye

02-21-2009, 05:01 PM

Why I am holding tight and I am bullish on the Financial sector.

Briefing.com: The Bad Bank Plan (http://news.briefing.com/GeneralContent/Investor/Active/ArticlePopup/ArticlePopup.aspx?ArticleId=NS20090129145644AheadO fTheCurve)

Evil-Eye

02-24-2009, 06:13 PM

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/5158/fas22409.png (http://imageshack.us)

Lets see if the break in the trendline holds. The TRIX-MACD cross overs look good.

Evil-Eye

02-26-2009, 07:29 AM

http://img413.imageshack.us/img413/3033/fas22509.png (http://imageshack.us)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-04-2009, 07:23 AM

Positive Divergence

15 Minute Chart
http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/994/fas330915min.png (http://img16.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas330915min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

3 hits on the floor made for a good support level in the 3.75 area.

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/853/fas330960min.png

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/853/fas3309daily.png

Bloomberg.com: Worldwide (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aabXQOXBRk8E&refer=home)

Futures are up this morning.

thegreatgate

03-04-2009, 12:52 PM

New record lows being set as I write this...

FAS at $3.54 (was at $30 two months ago)

It sucks to experience such a gigantic loss like this. I did great last year and was up about 30% this year until I got trapped in FAS.

thegreatgate

03-04-2009, 06:40 PM

Wednesday, March 4, 2009
See Video: These Stocks Could Skyrocket 100%, Says Jon Najarian - Rapid Recap - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/29510966)

On CNBC’s “Closing Bell” FM contributor Jon Najarian told Dylan Ratigan he sees a catalyst out there that could lift banks as much as 100% and as soon as next week. The catalyst involves mark-to-market accounting; which has been blamed for forcing banks to record billions of dollars in writedowns. According to Reuters, a U.S. House Financial Services subcommittee is expected to hold a hearing on mark-to-market accounting rules as soon as March 12. The SEC's chief accountant and the chairman of the Financial Accounting Standards Board, will be asked to testify, the report said. If that meeting results in the government relaxing mark-to-market rules, Najarian thinks the stock market could explode. He says, “if the government relaxes mark-to-market for 12 to 18 months you could see financials move 100% in a matter of hours.” And he goes on to say, “In fact, I hope you’ll replay the soundbite because if the government relaxes mark-to-market accounting a number of banks stocks will be unbelievable values at these levels.” But that's not all. Najarian thinks the move could not only light a fire under banks, but the entire market. “If that Reuters report above is right there’s a very good chance the entire market will get a big lift.” Again, the date to watch is March 12th.

Evil-Eye

03-05-2009, 06:44 AM

Mark to Market and the Up tick rule on short selling are the two biggest issues hurting the market right now in my opinion.

Evil-Eye

03-07-2009, 08:02 PM

The Associated Press: New push against accounting rule stirs in Congress (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hBPyR27LxcdWUhIH25GHXbQMZ3TwD96OPB2O0)

The Ticker - House Panel Sets Hearing on Mark-to-Market Accounting - Economy Watch (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2009/03/report_house_panel_sets_hearin.html?hpid=topnews)

Evil-Eye

03-10-2009, 07:30 AM

It's looking to be an up day

thegreatgate

03-10-2009, 10:10 AM

My only complaint is that although FAS is up 20.37%; the stock is down so hard that it only equates to 55 cents.

The good news is that the Russell 1000 (rifin.x) is only up a measly 22 points; but since the index is beaten down to a pulp it equates to a 6.25% gain.

And it is somewhat pleasurable to see FAZ buyers getting caught in a bull trap. FAZ opened yesterday around $110 and is down to $77 right now!

Evil-Eye

03-10-2009, 07:35 PM

I told this was going to go up...... eventually.

:rotfl:

Evil-Eye

03-10-2009, 09:30 PM

The Ticker - Report: Rep. Frank Says Uptick Rule Should Be Restored 'Within a Month' - Economy Watch (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/economy-watch/2009/03/report_rep_frank_sayz_uptick_r.html?hpid=topnews)

Evil-Eye

03-10-2009, 09:51 PM

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8509/fas31009.png (http://img27.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31009.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-11-2009, 09:29 AM

It looks to open higher.

Evil-Eye

03-11-2009, 02:57 PM

http://img10.imageshack.us/img10/3807/fasmidday31109.png (http://img10.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fasmidday31109.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/3269/fas31109dailyintraday.png (http://img18.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31109dailyintraday.png)

They are Evil's Pitch forks not Andrew's. :rotfl:

Evil-Eye

03-11-2009, 08:30 PM

The spinning top is not a good sign. This has a tendency to gap down then rise up and go sideways a little before dropping. I don't know if this will do that but it will be interesting to watch.

http://img23.imageshack.us/img23/5001/fas31109eod.png (http://img23.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31109eod.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

thegreatgate

03-12-2009, 10:03 AM

This is exactly what we need: overall markets all down but the rifin.x up therefore FAS up. Hopefully this will continue and FAS will be at $5 with the Dow still under 7,000 points. If we get into bear market rally mode and the Dow gets to 8,000 there is no doubt FAS will be relatively close to $10 ($7, $8, $9, not exactly sure).

FAS : $4.16 (+3.5%)
rifin.x: 415 points (+0.5%)

***Actually now the Dow and S&P are up about 0.10% but the NASDAQ is down.***
***FAS is looking pretty strong***

Evil-Eye

03-12-2009, 06:06 PM

Well, I think it gapped down a little. It went down a little more then took off.

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/6959/fas31209dailyeod.png (http://img21.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31209dailyeod.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

It will be interesting to see how tomorrow shapes up. With all the write downs in this sector due to accounting rules I think the next two quarters should be interesting. If they relax SAB 157 then watch what happens. Oh my would this fly. Say $60/share??? That would be ambitious but with the way this has been beaten down. As it stands it may not be too bad but we shall see.

thegreatgate

03-12-2009, 10:37 PM

If they relax SAB 157 then watch what happens. Oh my would this fly. Say $60/share???

Would be pretty funny if FAS and FAZ switched prices :dance:

Evil-Eye

03-13-2009, 07:56 AM

I am not expecting that any time soon so don't fall in love with either FAS or FAZ. FAS will get to 60 one day but it's going to be a rough ride getting there.

It's up 7% in premarket. I am more cautious when it gaps up in this mini up trend then gapping down.

Evil-Eye

03-13-2009, 10:18 PM

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/8623/faz3130930min.png (http://img14.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz3130930min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-16-2009, 08:55 PM

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/7233/fas31609.png (http://img27.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31609.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img27.imageshack.us/img27/8510/faz31609.png (http://img27.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz31609.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

The 60 min chart worked well on this turn. I don't know how far it will go back down but it is prime for some bad news,

thegreatgate

03-17-2009, 12:14 AM

Evil-Eye

03-17-2009, 07:38 AM

Article on ETF's. Check out the last chart (Leveraged ETFs with biggest declines YTD)
Bespoke Investment Group: Leveraged ETF Performance (http://bespokeinvest.typepad.com/bespoke/2009/03/leveraged-etf-performance.html)

If you want average results listen to the averages. :rotfl:

Now, add up the gains for each run FAS and FAZ did and multiply that by .5. What do you get? Thats being right only half the time. These are better swing traded or day traded. At these levels with FAS I do think holding longer term will not hurt anyone.

The chart says down so FAZ is the vehicle. The market is only up a little premarket so I think today will be down by the end. We shall see. I am usually wrong more then I am right. FAZ had a lot of down volume EOD.

thegreatgate

03-18-2009, 11:16 AM

Nothing like having the Dow off by 85 points and FAS up by 6%.

Current PPS: $5.95

Evil-Eye

03-18-2009, 06:40 PM

I am kicking myself in the as@ for thinking it was going down. The 60 min chart looked good for going south. Unfortunately that was the only one, everything else pointed up.

Evil-Eye

03-19-2009, 07:00 AM

http://img12.imageshack.us/img12/3468/fas31809.png (http://img12.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31809.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-19-2009, 07:56 PM

Here is the confusing part.

On the daily, this looks like this is going up.

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/4521/fas31909daily.png (http://img21.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31909daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

On the 60 min. it looks like it's going down.

http://img21.imageshack.us/img21/3932/fas31909.png (http://img21.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas31909.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

A trend with in a trend. 8-|

Evil-Eye

03-19-2009, 09:10 PM

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/8796/faz6031909.png (http://img22.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz6031909.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/8545/faz31909daily.png (http://img22.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz31909daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-20-2009, 07:12 AM

Banks are down in Europe this morning.

thegreatgate

03-20-2009, 09:20 AM

That is some impressive pre-market volume:
Triple Leveraged ETFs

We know there has been no shortage of commentary written about the issues surrounding leveraged ETFs, but today's premarket trading in the Financial sector triple leveraged ETFs from Direxion had us scratching our heads. As shown below, the triple leveraged bullish ETF (FAS) is trading up 4 cents or 0.70%. At the same time, the triple leveraged bearish ETF (FAZ) is trading up 1.41%. Both ETFs are based on the same index, except that one is supposed to track the index while the other tracks the inverse of the index. We realize that trading can be volatile in the pre-market, but FAS has already traded over 2 million shares and FAZ has traded over 400K shares, so it's hard to blame this anomaly on illiquidity.

At 9:20am FAS has 3 million 70K trades and FAZ has 461,000 trades

Evil-Eye

03-20-2009, 04:13 PM

That is some impressive pre-market volume:

At 9:20am FAS has 3 million 70K trades and FAZ has 461,000 trades
I saw that this morning. You had commodities on the rise with the banking stocks slowly going down. I think there was some kind of euphoria going on both sides.

Evil-Eye

03-20-2009, 04:21 PM

This chart was working today.

http://img17.imageshack.us/img17/6261/faz32009daily.png (http://img17.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz32009daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-21-2009, 12:58 PM

There are two news events coming up next week that could effect FAS and FAZ ( I forgot to add that).
1)
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner Could Announce Toxic Asset Plan For Banks On Monday - cbs5.com (http://cbs5.com/national/timothy.geithner.toxic.2.964480.html)

2)
Calamitous day sees banks, credit unions seized - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/Calamitous-day-sees-banks-credit/story.aspx?guid=%7B1B67729E-D317-41BD-9503-11DE3E9B48AF%7D)

One good and one bad. I see the 1st news item may give a boost until reality sets in on the 2nd new item. However most of this could be cleared up if Mark to Market was relaxed.

Evil-Eye

03-22-2009, 08:13 PM

There was heavy Put volume on FHN - First Horizon National - on friday.

and here is a little more info. First Horizon National (FHN) NewsBite - FHN Rises on Extended Banking Rally (http://www.marketintelligencecenter.com/articles/786308)

Some banks toss TARP funds back : Business News : Memphis Commercial Appeal (http://www.commercialappeal.com/news/2009/mar/15/some-banks-tossing-tarp-funds-back/)

Evil-Eye

03-23-2009, 06:56 AM

CNNMoney.com Pre-Market Report - Mar. 23, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/03/23/markets/stockswatch/?postversion=2009032306)

It looks to gap up this morning.

Evil-Eye

03-23-2009, 07:31 AM

I would like to jump in but I think this is going to be too choppy. It's great that the government now has a plan but will the banks want to participate in it is the question. With all the attention on compensation and the other restrictions. It may be too much. We should get a nice little run out of this.

It would have been much easier to relax the Mark to Market rule.

Evil-Eye

03-24-2009, 08:09 AM

This has a tendency to gap down then run up. My only concern is that this was in the cycle of going down when the news was announced. Had the MACD been in negative territory I would have felt better about the rally on the latest news. I am still trying to decide where this is going.

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/4649/fas3230960min.png (http://img25.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3230960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/6609/fas32309day.png (http://img25.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas32309day.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Here is an interesting spread sheet on this I found. This gives a price to the corresponding index value. I do not know how accurate this is.

http://spreadsheets.google.com/ccc?key=pqmnyETSsprK22DrrEzYBPA&hl=en

Evil-Eye

03-24-2009, 11:01 PM

http://img440.imageshack.us/img440/1561/fas3240960min.png (http://img440.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3240960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/1521/fas32409dailyq.png (http://img257.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas32409dailyq.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/2300/faz32409dailyu.png (http://img257.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz32409dailyu.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img257.imageshack.us/img257/3558/faz60min32409.png (http://img257.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz60min32409.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-25-2009, 07:05 PM

I found it interesting how the price interacted with the trend lines. FAS looks o be in an up trend on the daily and a down trend on the 60 minute chart. The end of day swings are reminding me of the last time this bottomed out and would jump around.

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/3672/faz3250960min.png (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz3250960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/897/faz32509daily.png (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz32509daily.png)

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/6328/fas3250960min.png (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3250960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/470/fas32509daily.png (http://img291.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas32509daily.png)

Evil-Eye

03-26-2009, 07:30 AM

Earnings season is coming up. I heard a trader say that it looks to be dismal again but not as bad as January. I guess this is up because of England's auction went well. I am thinking that I will let this run up a bit exit FAS on a high and throw what I had in FAS into FAZ. This short term euphoria should not cloud one's thinking about the economy.

FAS looks to gap up. It is gapping up into resistance and I don't trust it when it gaps up near resistance.

Evil-Eye

03-26-2009, 06:15 PM

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/8682/fas3260960min.png (http://img223.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3260960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/7311/fas3260960minf.png (http://img223.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas3260960minf.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/6694/fas30min.png (http://img223.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas30min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img223.imageshack.us/img223/8259/fas15l.png (http://img223.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas15l.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-27-2009, 12:28 PM

After looking at the TRIX on the 15 and 30 min chart I am thinking this will have a downside break. Maybe this afternoon.

Evil-Eye

03-27-2009, 10:39 PM

Banks Lose $836 Million in First Derivatives Loss (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=avUzcSko_qMY&refer=home)

Evil-Eye

03-28-2009, 11:18 AM

The best that I could come up with is the tri star pattern which has a moderate reliability of a major reversal.

http://img410.imageshack.us/img410/8879/faz32709daily.png (http://img410.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz32709daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-28-2009, 02:00 PM

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/7089/faz6032709.png (http://img24.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz6032709.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-30-2009, 07:12 AM

After looking at the TRIX on the 15 and 30 min chart I am thinking this will have a downside break. Maybe this afternoon.

OK I was a couple of days early again. 8-|

Evil-Eye

03-30-2009, 10:12 PM

http://img25.imageshack.us/img25/3747/faz3300960min.png (http://img25.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz3300960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img19.imageshack.us/img19/5978/faz33009daily.png (http://img19.imageshack.us/my.php?image=faz33009daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

03-30-2009, 10:39 PM

Financial Winners and Losers: BofA | Winners & Losers | Financial Articles & Investing News | TheStreet.com (http://www.thestreet.com/story/10479478/1/financial-winners-and-losers-bofa.html?cm_ven=GOOGLEFI)

Evil-Eye

03-31-2009, 09:40 PM

http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/8902/fas33109daily.png (http://img441.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas33109daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Mark-to-Market Lobby Buoys Bank Profits 20% as FASB May Say Yes - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=awSxPMGzDW38&refer=india)

March 30 (Bloomberg) -- Four days after U.S. lawmakers berated Financial Accounting Standards Board Chairman Robert Herz and threatened to take rulemaking out of his hands, FASB proposed an overhaul of fair-value accounting that may improve profits at banks such as Citigroup Inc. by more than 20 percent.
The changes proposed on March 16 to fair-value, also known as mark-to-market accounting, would allow companies to use “significant judgment” in valuing assets and reduce the amount of writedowns they must take on so-called impaired investments, including mortgage-backed securities. A final vote on the resolutions, which would apply to first-quarter financial statements, is scheduled for April 2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601091&sid=awSxPMGzDW38&refer=india

Evil-Eye

04-01-2009, 07:46 PM

I saw that it was gapping down this morning so I used a $ .10 trailing buy stop instead of trying to guess where this was going to start the day out. It worked surprisingly well. It was interesting that this stayed with in the top trend line.

http://img15.imageshack.us/img15/2818/fas4109daily.png (http://img15.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas4109daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

04-04-2009, 12:09 PM

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/4020/fas4309daily.png (http://img6.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas4309daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Wow, look at the volume by price chart show the areas of resistance. It looks if it breaks the current resistance this has a lot of up side.
http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/3816/fas4309volprice.png (http://img6.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas4309volprice.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

04-11-2009, 12:57 PM

Well this finally came to life. I had not been posting because the options on this had me doing research. Some of the options on this were up +100% in a day. I am still doing some research on them but I was very impressed. Now, if I could have gotten in on those when this was 2.50. I could have taken the rest of the year off not that I have done any real work yet this year.

http://img24.imageshack.us/img24/3073/fas41009.png (http://img24.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas41009.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

04-11-2009, 01:32 PM

FASDA

SnapshotChartsNewsOptions ChainsAnalyst ResearchFundamentalsEarningsInsider Activity

Last Price Today's Change Bid (Size) Ask (Size) Day's Range Volume Trade
3.68 + 2.23 (+153.79%) 3.60 x890 3.80 x5 2.35 - 3.80 10,650

Closing Price Last Trade as of 3:59 PM ET 04/09/09
Open 2.35
Previous Close 1.45
Open Interest 26039
Intrinsic Value 3.71
Time Premium N/A
Option Type Equity
Last Day of Trading 4/17/2009
Expiration Date 4/18/2009
Exercise Style American
Options Multiplier 100
Deliverable for this contract
100 Shares of (FAS)

:dance:

Evil-Eye

04-11-2009, 01:35 PM

Fasda

Evil-Eye

04-15-2009, 07:25 PM

FAS up 13%

http://img22.imageshack.us/img22/6816/fas1509daily.png (http://img22.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas1509daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

FASDA up 40%

Evil-Eye

04-17-2009, 06:27 AM

The day looks to start down but it may not end that way. The 7 - 7.50 area which was resistance is now support. If it drops back to that area it looks like a buy. The only thing I can see on the horizon is the release of the stress test results. If it were bad I don't think they would announce them so soon. There may be some bad ones but with the list of banks wanting to repay early I think it may not be as bad as some people think.

There is negative divergence between price and CMF. I would have drawn it but my JAVA was not working this morning.

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/2054/fas41609.png (http://img145.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas41609.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

04-20-2009, 06:27 PM

Well as luck would have it I bought a Put on this after seeing a hammer on the Put chart for FAS. I am at +99.4 % in a Day. Now the question is when to sell. FAS has broken it's support area in my opinion. I had a limit to sell the April $8 at 1.40 but after I saw how fast and hard this was falling I let it ride.

I Bot an Oct $10 call at the high of the market. I now see that I paid too much for that. October is a long way off and it was a small purchase. I can double or even triple down on it if needed when this bottoms again.

I am thinking I like swing trading with options better then with the actual shares.

http://img406.imageshack.us/img406/9907/fas42009.png (http://img406.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas42009.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

04-21-2009, 07:55 PM

In at .80 on Friday and Out at 2.00 today. I missed the FAS call. The limit was too low. I missed by .05 :-||

Evil-Eye

04-22-2009, 05:56 PM

FASEJ - Bot at 1.00 and sold at 1.15. Now I had set the limit too low thinking there would be a pop but this could have set it at 1.50. I didn't buy at any puts yet because I did not look at them in depth. I did not see anything that stood out.

Evil-Eye

04-23-2009, 10:02 PM

FAS May 2009 8.0000 call(OPR: FASEJ.X)
Last Trade: 1.30
Trade Time: 3:59pm ET
Change: 0.25 (23.81%)
Prev Close: 1.05
Open: 1.20
Bid: 1.30
Ask: 1.35

Day's Range: 0.95 - 1.40
Contract Range: 0.55 - 3.40
Volume: 15,195
Open Interest: 32,728
Strike: 8.00
Expire Date: 15-May-09

Evil-Eye

04-27-2009, 10:28 PM

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/4250/fas4270960min.png (http://img401.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas4270960min.png)
Bearish Wedge and Negative Divergence?

http://img79.imageshack.us/img79/273/fasqh42709.gif (http://img79.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fasqh42709.gif)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img237.imageshack.us/img237/9708/fasqj42709.gif (http://img237.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fasqj42709.gif)

Evil-Eye

04-28-2009, 06:14 AM

CNNMoney.com Pre-Market Report - Apr. 28, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/04/28/markets/stockswatch/index.htm)

I am glad I bot a Put on Friday.

Evil-Eye

04-29-2009, 07:02 AM

FAS up premarket. I don't know why except for someone having non public information on reports coming out today. There are a few banks in need of more capital and the flu should be pushing the market down.

What do the charts say?

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/9602/fas4280960min.png (http://img253.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas4280960min.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/1170/fas42809daily.png (http://img253.imageshack.us/my.php?image=fas42809daily.png)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img253.imageshack.us/img253/1561/barchartfas42809.gif (http://img253.imageshack.us/my.php?image=barchartfas42809.gif)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

10-05-2009, 03:15 PM

Nice one day trade off a lower BB band penetration.

Evil-Eye

10-06-2009, 05:30 PM

FAYVS= an Oct 21 Put of FAZ which is the same as a Call on FAS but I am cheap and didn't want to pay the higher prem. I was surprised by this mornings news which gave this a nice boost. Todays signal? Well you can decide. This was a nice trade if you held it for three days. These things will start to melt away soon so I would not be jumping into these IMHO. I like to side on the aire of caution.

Evil-Eye

10-06-2009, 05:44 PM

Now I am looking into Nov. strikes.

Evil-Eye

10-07-2009, 05:51 AM

Also looking at FAYKU Nov strike

Evil-Eye

10-07-2009, 05:52 AM

and FEWWS.

Both are a little more out of the money.

Evil-Eye

10-08-2009, 04:32 PM

For some reason some of my postings have been disappearing.

Evil-Eye

10-10-2009, 11:07 AM

I saw some unusual call buying last week on this.

VZKP The Hammer into the lower BB was nice.

Evil-Eye

10-10-2009, 11:16 AM

There was some heavy put buying in the SPY Nov 85's. Negative Divergence is present and it's running up into resistance.

Evil-Eye

10-10-2009, 11:30 AM

I had not been looking at this because I am of the belief that we are due a correction. I am usually early on my predictions.

Never underestimate the potential of stupid.

Evil-Eye

10-10-2009, 12:21 PM

Here is another view of the FAZ Call option FAYKU. This chart looks good for a reversal. No candle stick reversal signals yet.

Evil-Eye

10-11-2009, 05:58 PM

Here is something that caught my eye because of its chart. Negative divergence is present and the volume is dropping. There is not enough option volume to play this yet.

Evil-Eye

10-11-2009, 07:44 PM

ROST Nov 2009 42.5000 put(OPR: REQWT.X)
Last Trade: 1.10
Trade Time: Oct 9
Change: 0.25 (29.41%)
Prev Close: 0.85
Open: 1.00
Bid: 1.15
Ask: 1.25
Day's Range: N/A - 1.25
Contract Range: N/A - N/A
Volume: 4,248
Open Interest: 3,730
Strike: 42.50
Expire Date: 20-Nov-09

This has an interesting chart. It looks like it's getting ready to break down. Negative MACD divergence is present. I will look for a lower high in the next week or so. Monday will be a light volume day so I don't expect anything spectacular to happen.

thegreatgate

10-11-2009, 09:58 PM

Evil-Eye

10-12-2009, 06:00 AM

EvilEye, your charts are appearing microscopically small! I'd love to see them but can't the way they are now.

They used to be really big and easy to read: See example here (http://www.stockmarketcats.com/f45/evil-trading-2954-3.html#post42943)

Looks like you used to use imageshack to post your charts back in the day. Is there anyway you could return using imageshack? Not trying to be rude (I use photobucket when posting mine so I know it is a hassle...)

Thanks!!! I know what you mean. It worked with Stockcharts but when I tried it with Bigcharts it did not work. I tried a couple of ways but Bigcharts did not work like Stockcharts on Imageshack for some reason. Stockcharts did not chart options so I am open to suggestions. I will try again. Maybe I did not do something the right way.

There are some Bank earnings releases this week. Citi and Bank of America should be interesting. Ken Lewis announced he is bailing ahead of the earnings release. Does that mean something?

Evil-Eye

10-12-2009, 06:08 AM

I think I figured it out.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/3016/rost100909day.gif (http://img185.imageshack.us/i/rost100909day.gif/)

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/2153/reqwt100909day.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-12

ROST Nov 2009 42.5000 put(OPR: REQWT.X)
Last Trade: 1.10
Trade Time: Oct 9
Change: 0.00 (0.00%)
Prev Close: 1.10
Open: 1.00
Bid: N/A
Ask: N/A
Day's Range: N/A - 1.25
Contract Range: N/A - N/A
Volume: 4,248
Open Interest: 3,730
Strike: 42.50
Expire Date: 20-Nov-09

Evil-Eye

10-12-2009, 06:40 AM

Option Activity Alert: Skepticism Rises on New York Community Bancorp, Inc. (http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/commentary/content/option+activity+alert+skepticism+rises+on+new+york +community+bancorp+inc/observations.aspx?click=home&ID=95651)

Evil-Eye

10-12-2009, 08:33 PM

http://img246.imageshack.us/img246/7715/szcwg101209.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-12

SPY Nov 2009 85.0000 put(OPR: SZCWG.X)
Last Trade: 0.10
Trade Time: 4:05pm ET
Change: 0.01 (9.09%)
Prev Close: 0.11
Open: 0.09
Bid: 0.10
Ask: 0.12
Day's Range: N/A - 0.12
Contract Range: N/A - N/A
Volume: 11,394
Open Interest: 83,573
Strike: 85.00
Expire Date: 20-Nov-09

Symbol Today's Volume Expiration Strike Put Call % on Bid Price % on Ask Price
.SPX 30428 10/17/09 1050 P 1.6% 3.6%
.SPX 26927 11/21/09 900 P 2.1% 0.2%
.SPX 25289 11/21/09 950 P 2.0% 0.3%
.SPX 24468 10/17/09 1050 C 1.2% 0.2%
.SPX 23474 11/21/09 1050 P 2.3% 2.3%
.SPX 21076 10/17/09 1080 C 22.1% 20.7%
.SPX 19385 12/19/09 1000 P 1.0% 1.1%
.SPX 18183 10/17/09 1100 C 8.4% 24.0%
.SPX 17235 11/21/09 1050 C 0.1% 0.3%
.SPX 16084 11/21/09 1000 P 0.9% 19.1%

SPY: Options for S&P DEP RECEIPTS - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/op?s=SPY&m=2009-11)

Evil-Eye

10-13-2009, 05:19 PM

We are getting there.

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/2853/fayku101309.gif (http://img213.imageshack.us/i/fayku101309.gif/)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

Evil-Eye

10-13-2009, 06:00 PM

If the futures are still strong in the morning it may be a Put buying opp.

Evil-Eye

10-14-2009, 06:03 AM

Top Financial Earnings on Deck (JPM, GS, C, BAC, PRSP, FAS, FAZ) – 24/7 Wall St. (http://247wallst.com/2009/10/13/top-financial-earnings-on-deck-jpm-gs-c-bac-prsp-fas-faz/)

Evil-Eye

10-15-2009, 05:15 AM

Russell 1000 Financial Services (RGS) Index - Google Finance (http://www.google.com/finance?q=INDEXAMEX:RIFIN.X)

Evil-Eye

10-15-2009, 05:26 AM

Evil-Eye

10-15-2009, 07:01 PM

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/7978/fayku1015091hr.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-15

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/7721/fayku101509.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-15

My thoughts on FAYKU are best summed up in the following song.

YouTube - Paul Simon Slip Slidin' Away - Live at Abbey Road (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nKxyoud_c-E)

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/92/fewws1015091hr.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-15

http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/6606/fewws101509.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-15

This also sums up my thoughts.

YouTube - Player - Baby Come Back (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Hn-enjcgV1o)

I have been asking YouTube - ACE How long 1974 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FIK5F4zRN0Y&feature=related) about this current run.

I am thinking that YouTube - STARBUCK Moonlight Feels Right (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xwOirZ-rg6Q&feature=related) for this market to take a drop.

I am thinking BAC will show some problems and it will be YouTube - Starland Vocal Band Afternoon Delight (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=A81fwLNklSM&feature=fvw)

and if BAC comes in with better then expected news....then FAZ..YouTube - Commodores - Sail On (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zg-ivWxy5KE&feature=related)

Evil-Eye

10-16-2009, 02:51 PM

Oil is getting higher which will eat up free cash flow of the consumer.

Evil-Eye

10-17-2009, 09:19 PM

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/1648/rifin101609.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-17

http://img9.imageshack.us/img9/8799/rifinst101609.png
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-17

770-780 on the downside?

Evil-Eye

10-18-2009, 12:29 PM

I am still waiting for this to come down. Up up and away we go.

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/9056/fewws101409.gif (http://img185.imageshack.us/i/fewws101409.gif/)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

http://img119.imageshack.us/img119/3695/fewws1014091hr.gif (http://img119.imageshack.us/i/fewws1014091hr.gif/)
By Evil_Eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/Evil_Eye_21201)

The Iron Cross through the upper BB was the sign that this was coming down, hindsight is 20/20.

http://img16.imageshack.us/img16/9720/fewws101609day.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-18

http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/699/fewws1016091hr.gif
By evil_eye_21201 (http://profile.imageshack.us/user/evil_eye_21201) at 2009-10-18

YouTube - Crowded House - Don't Dream It's Over (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oCqsG1t7RoU)

Evil-Eye

10-19-2009, 06:13 PM

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/4762/fewwq101909day.gif

http://img38.imageshack.us/img38/8810/fewwq1019091hr.gif

The first chart caught my attention today. Th erotically speaking it did not exactly match my buy criteria but it was close enough. Hopefully it will be a short trade. I still have the other position which I am debating on whether to sell it and roll it into a lower strike or wait. :~/

Paralysis through analysis and don't underestimate the power of stupid are my two thoughts for today.

Evil-Eye

10-19-2009, 06:29 PM

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/1152/54092322.png (http://img32.imageshack.us/i/54092322.png/)

Evil-Eye

10-20-2009, 08:02 PM

http://img194.imageshack.us/img194/7215/90693707.png (http://img194.imageshack.us/i/90693707.png/)

http://img40.imageshack.us/img40/3576/59827472.png

Well, I should have looked at the weekly yesterday instead of today.

Out: FEWWQ

In: FEWKQ

http://img7.imageshack.us/img7/3587/fewkq1020091hr.gif

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/6018/fewkq102009day.gif

YouTube - Queens Of The Stone Age - 11 - The Sky is Falling (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP-4KemxrPk)

This is reminds me of the old Nasdaq trading desk, only smaller.
YouTube - Paperclips + Monday = Beatdown (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_4JUHJaYzLs&NR=1)

Evil-Eye

10-20-2009, 09:09 PM

YouTube - Lesson 3- Bollinger Bands (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e5ER60GjWqc)

Evil-Eye

10-21-2009, 01:38 PM

http://img291.imageshack.us/img291/9733/41752000.png

http://img30.imageshack.us/img30/2449/48936306.png

Evil-Eye

10-21-2009, 05:06 PM

Even a blind squirrel can find a nut every once in a while. I might even make some money on FAYKU if I'm lucky.

http://img44.imageshack.us/img44/1269/fewkq1021091hr.gif (http://img44.imageshack.us/i/fewkq1021091hr.gif/)

http://img43.imageshack.us/img43/8016/fewkq1021091day.gif

My thoughts can be summed up in the following melody.

YouTube - Creed- "Higher" (Official) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cFn2pBAiwuk)

Evil-Eye

10-21-2009, 08:22 PM

He sounded good on TV....
"I think Wells Fargo is proving itself to be a stand-out with these numbers," Bove said.
Wells Fargo's profit rose 60 percent in the third quarter, as revenue from mortgage banking surged, and the bank reported earnings per share of 56 cents, from 49 cents a year ago.

Housing Market Has Bottomed, Banking Analyst Bove Says - CNBC Stock Blog - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/33411724)

Then came this gem.

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Wells Fargo & Co. was cut to “sell” by Rochdale Securities LLC analyst **** Bove, who cited boosts to third-quarter earnings from servicing fees on mortgages and a lower tax rate.
Wells Fargo Cut to ?Sell? by Rochdale?s Bove on Mortgage Fees - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=ar09yfhQOOpE)

I would open a case on that one.

YouTube - ELVIS COSTELLO "Watching the Detectives" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YiNHe7BUqhc)

Evil-Eye

10-22-2009, 04:54 AM

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/896/fpmwi1021091day.gif (http://img62.imageshack.us/i/fpmwi1021091day.gif/) I usually don't wish for things to go down except for now.

YouTube - Justin Timberlake Featuring Timbaland - SexyBack (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAT5ypTjKOI)

Evil-Eye

10-22-2009, 05:10 PM

http://img63.imageshack.us/img63/5081/rifin102209.png
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/9053/vix102209.png
http://img514.imageshack.us/img514/5527/fewkq1022091day.gif
http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/6003/fewkq1022091hr.gif

My thoughts are best summed up in the following song.

YouTube - Right Place , Wrong Time (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ct4sVVqeoUE)

Evil-Eye

10-23-2009, 06:30 AM

My thoughts on the market.

YouTube - IRON MAIDEN - FLIGHT OF ICARUS (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J_j4zpeZOgM)

Evil-Eye

10-24-2009, 09:11 AM

"Earnings at most big banks outpaced expectations in the third quarter."

Bank earnings beat expectations, but are they sustainable? -- DailyFinance (http://www.dailyfinance.com/2009/10/22/bank-earnings-beat-expectations-but-are-they-sustainable/)

My feelings on the quote.
YouTube - Public Enemy - Don't Believe The Hype: Edited Master (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ASjH7X-jAY4)

The Associated Press: Bank failures hit 106 for year; many more are weak (http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5i6Ok0pWih60k5t_jnYdSJ0iKA2YgD9BHC16O3)

Evil-Eye

10-24-2009, 02:53 PM

Non-farm Payroll Report October 2 2009 | Sense on Cents (http://www.senseoncents.com/tag/non-farm-payroll-report-october-2-2009/)

Evil-Eye

10-24-2009, 08:06 PM

Here is an interesting read on Wells Fargo.

UPDATE: Analyst Exposes Wells Fargo Balance Sheet Charade | Sense on Cents (http://www.senseoncents.com/2009/10/analyst-exposes-wells-fargo-balance-sheet-charade/)

Evil-Eye

10-26-2009, 05:34 PM

Oct. 26 (Bloomberg) -- Bank of America Corp. dropped as much as 7.1 percent in New York trading after Rochdale Securities LLC analyst Richard Bove said the lender will remain “chained” to the government and Moody’s Investors Service said the industry’s write-offs have equaled the Great Depression.

Bank of America Falls as Bove Says Firm ?Chained? (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601103&sid=aK0MwGQJV72g)

Evil-Eye

10-26-2009, 07:00 PM

When down is a good thing.

http://img32.imageshack.us/img32/7045/fewkq1026091day.gif

http://img3.imageshack.us/img3/1544/fewkq1026091hr.gif

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 06:29 AM

Are we going to bounce here or at the lower BB?

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/1893/66260255.png (http://img8.imageshack.us/i/66260255.png/)

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 06:35 AM

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 05:43 PM

Too-big-to-fail banks to bail themselves out

By Ronald D. Orol
WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) - Responding to the financial crisis, bank regulators will have a new process to dismantle an insolvent mega institution and replace its management and board so that its collapse does not cause collateral damage to the markets, according to long-awaited legislation introduced by a key congressional committee on Tuesday. The package would have the costs to dismantle an insolvent financial institution first come from the expenses of shareholders and creditors, followed by charges to financial institutions with $10 billion in assets or more. The bill provides for a "flexible repayment period" for the assessments.

Too-big-to-fail banks to bail themselves out - MarketWatch (http://www.marketwatch.com/story/too-big-to-fail-banks-to-bail-themselves-out-2009-10-27?tool=1&dist=bigcharts)

That should go over well. :O

http://img210.imageshack.us/img210/4819/rifin102709wk.png

http://img340.imageshack.us/img340/3004/rifin102709day.png

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 07:24 PM

YouTube - Don't Trade Options Blind - Know Your Implied Volatility (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tEokbHqSp9o)

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 07:40 PM

YouTube - Option Addict Analysis: Trade Entry (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hUw-vmTRUzk&feature=related)

Evil-Eye

10-27-2009, 07:47 PM

http://img245.imageshack.us/img245/7121/fewkq102709day.gif

http://img2.imageshack.us/img2/3457/fewkq102709hr.gif

Evil-Eye

10-28-2009, 05:30 AM

I still see some downward pressure and room to move down in banking. Duhh

Banks: Winners And Losers - Forbes.com (http://www.forbes.com/2009/10/27/banks-indexing-winner-intelligent-investing-losers.html)

Evil-Eye

10-28-2009, 05:55 AM

After hours have C and BAC lower but they are the ones who are late to the party. I never liked After or Pre. The only thing consistent about those prices are their inconsistency to predict the direction of price during regular hours.
FAS
76.30 -1.53‎ (-1.97%‎) Oct 27 4:00pm ET
77.35‎ +1.05‎ (1.38%‎) After Hours
Open: 77.90
High: 78.85
Low: 74.88

FAZ
21.09 +0.41‎ (1.98%‎) Oct 27 4:00pm ET
21.02‎ -0.07‎ (-0.33%‎) Pre-Market
Open: 20.69
High: 21.47
Low: 20.42

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline on Earnings Recovery Concern
Share | Email | Print | A A A

By Adam Haigh

Oct. 28 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. stock-index futures fell, indicating the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index may drop for a fourth day, as disappointing earnings from Canon Inc. to SAP AG and ArcelorMittal raised concern the economic recovery may falter.

U.S. Steel Corp. will probably move after ArcelorMittal, the world’s biggest steelmaker, reported a slump in third- quarter profit. Texas Instruments Inc. gained 1.2 percent after Goldman Sachs Group Inc. advised buying the chipmaker’s shares. ConocoPhillips is among companies due to report earnings today before the equity market opens.

Futures on the S&P 500 index expiring in December retreated 0.4 percent to 1,056.20 at 9:04 a.m. in London. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures dropped 0.3 percent to 9,806. Nasdaq- 100 Index futures declined 0.3 percent to 1,715.0.

The S&P 500 has rallied 57 percent from a 12-year low on March 9 amid growing confidence a U.S. economic recovery will drive profit growth. Net income has topped analysts’ estimates at 83 percent of the 219 companies in the S&P 500 index that have reported results since Oct. 7, according to Bloomberg data.

Reports today may show orders for durable goods and sales of new houses rose in September. Bookings for goods meant to last several years gained 1 percent, the fourth increase in the past six months, according to the median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey ahead of the Commerce Department’s report on durable goods due at 8:30 a.m. in Washington. New-home purchases climbed last month to the highest level in more than a year, another Commerce Department report may show at 10 a.m.

U.S. Steel

Shares in Europe and Asia declined after SAP cut its software sales forecast and Canon posted a seventh straight quarterly profit drop. Europe’s Dow Jones Stoxx 600 Index slid 0.9 percent, while the MSCI Asia Pacific Index lost 1.2 percent.

U.S. Steel may move. Rival ArcelorMittal dropped in Europe as third-quarter net income fell 76 percent to $903 million from a year earlier.

SAP, the world’s biggest maker of business-management software, cut its 2009 software and related service revenue target. Canon slumped in Japan after the world’s largest camera maker said third-quarter net income fell 56 percent.

Texas Instruments added 1.2 percent to $24.08 in German trading. Goldman Sachs raised the second-largest U.S. chipmaker to “buy” from “neutral,” and cut rival Sandisk Corp. to “neutral” from “buy.”

Target Corp. may rise. Citigroup Inc. raised the second- biggest U.S. discount retailer to “buy” from “sell.” The stock did not trade in Europe.

To contact the reporter on this story: Adam Haigh in London at ahaigh1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 28, 2009 05:18 EDT

U.S. Stock-Index Futures Decline on Earnings Recovery Concern - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601084&sid=a6aZZix.pHQM)

Evil-Eye

10-28-2009, 09:22 PM

YouTube - Saluzzi Calls Consumer Confidence Report a `Disaster': Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=c_wrjLg4g2A)

Evil-Eye

10-29-2009, 09:58 PM

http://img300.imageshack.us/img300/2900/rifin102909day.png

http://img11.imageshack.us/img11/6296/rifin1029091hr.png

Evil-Eye

10-30-2009, 05:58 PM

What a day!

http://img688.imageshack.us/img688/8728/fosww103009day.gif

Vix shot up and this took off.

http://img177.imageshack.us/img177/1107/fayku103009day.gif

http://img213.imageshack.us/img213/9720/rifin103009day.png

http://img267.imageshack.us/img267/8025/rifin103009hr.png

Evil-Eye

10-31-2009, 05:03 PM

Cramer's 5 Breakout Regional Bank Stocks - Mad Money Slide Show - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/33452664/)

Evil-Eye

11-03-2009, 05:41 AM

This had a nice play yesterday.

http://img504.imageshack.us/img504/5254/foswm110209.gif (http://img504.imageshack.us/i/foswm110209.gif/)

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/2830/rifin110209week.png

http://img62.imageshack.us/img62/5548/rifin110209d.png

I think this is still a downside play. Premarket looks ugly this morning.

Evil-Eye

11-04-2009, 05:04 AM

http://img513.imageshack.us/img513/285/44861268.png (http://img513.imageshack.us/i/44861268.png/)

Inside Day

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/948/15579795.png (http://img35.imageshack.us/i/15579795.png/)

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2791/39862921.png (http://img8.imageshack.us/i/39862921.png/)

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/3424/73893445.png (http://img35.imageshack.us/i/73893445.png/)

Evil-Eye

11-04-2009, 04:28 PM

This could be important to know.

Roubini?s Das Is Emerging-Market Bull on Carry Trade (Update1) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aM.FQ.3_pfLY&pos=5)

Evil-Eye

11-04-2009, 07:42 PM

http://img8.imageshack.us/img8/2889/22273982.png (http://img8.imageshack.us/i/22273982.png/)

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5839/99791780.png (http://img338.imageshack.us/i/99791780.png/)

http://img530.imageshack.us/img530/4953/57887046.png (http://img530.imageshack.us/i/57887046.png/)

This is like watching a slow death.

Evil-Eye

11-05-2009, 05:30 AM

FRB: Testimony--Greenlee, Residential and commercial real estate--November 2, 2009 (http://federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/greenlee20091102a.htm)

Evil-Eye

11-05-2009, 06:34 PM

This was another buying opp. for Puts today in my opinion. The market rallied of of who's earnings? Not a Bank's earnings. Banks still have serious troubles. Now, the real question is will the MM's sell this rally out tomorrow or will the hedge funds use this to get short?

I liked the charts. $RIFIN is still holding with in the trend lines. It did not breakout of the 1hr trend line. It ran up to it and touched. That only makes it stronger. So out there somewhere is a computerized trading program that is using that trend line. God love computers.

http://img685.imageshack.us/img685/7733/rifin1105091hr.png

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/6243/rifin110509d.png

http://img41.imageshack.us/img41/3954/rifin110509wk.png

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iAT5ypTjKOI

Evil-Eye

11-05-2009, 07:07 PM

This one guy is a goof. Gap up in unemployment should be seen as a good thing.

YouTube - Herrmann Expects `Bigger Jump' in U.S. Unemployment Rate: Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i38Xtjr-QDw&feature=sub)

Evil-Eye

11-07-2009, 07:01 AM

thegreatgate

11-07-2009, 11:52 AM

Never under estimate the power of stupid people in large numbers.

Unemployment hits 10.2%
The unemployment rate spiked to its highest level since 1983, much worse than expected as employers continue to trim jobs despite other signs of growth.
Unemployment rate hits 10.2%, worst since 1983 - Nov. 6, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/06/news/economy/jobs_october/?postversion=2009110611)

http://img338.imageshack.us/img338/5125/economics03.jpg (http://img338.imageshack.us/i/economics03.jpg/)

2 Interesting things I found.

1 is that NOV, DEC, JAN are historically (since 1950) 3 of the top 4 best-performing months of the year:
http://hphotos-snc1.fbcdn.net/hs150.snc1/5571_117136635641_111545265641_2405116_7663383_n.j pg

2 is that the markets rejoice when unemployment is in double digits. Well, at least they did the last time unemployment was +10%, and I get the feeling the markets will rally and defy the odds this time with unemployment over 10%. I'm still looking for a nice balance of shorts cause a lot of stocks aren't going up with the major indexes. I grabbed 1K shares short of CROX Friday at $5.75....

Unemployment Above 10%

The unemployment rate hit 10.2% today, topping the 10% mark for the first time since June 1983. Economists are generally expecting the rate to go higher before it goes lower. Back in September 1982 when the unemployment rate moved above 10% for the first time in the post-WWII era, the rate remained above 10% for 10 months and hit a peak of 10.8% in November and December of 1982.

With the Dow opening lower today by about 50 points only to close up by about 20 points, investors didn't seem too worried about the move above 10% in unemployment. And they didn't seem too worried about it 27 years ago either. In fact, the S&P 500 went from about 120 to 170 (+40%) throughout the period of 10%+ unemployment from September '82 to June '83.

http://i106.photobucket.com/albums/m254/nathan_211/Finances/usunemploymentrateover10.png

Evil-Eye

11-08-2009, 09:08 PM

Thanks for the post. I am watching the volume which on Friday was light.

http://img199.imageshack.us/img199/9071/dia100609day.png (http://img199.imageshack.us/i/dia100609day.png/)

Look at the Green to Red time periods then compare them to the Red to Green. One is getting longer and the other is getting shorter.

Here is a part of a WSJ article which shows the differences. The biggest one I see is the Fed Funds Rate.

Unfortunately, other similarities are scarce.

The market is not nearly as cheap now as it was then. When the 1980s bull market began, the S&P 500 was priced at less than 7 times trailing earnings. Even after a 69% rally, that multiple was just 10 times earnings.

The latest rally began with the market at a P/E of 13. The ratio has bloated to nearly 19, compared with its long-term average of 16.

In April 1983, when unemployment was last at 10.2%, it was on its way down. Now it looks like unemployment could rise for months.

And when the 1980s rally began, the Federal Reserve's key policy interest rate was 11%, meaning it could simply slash rates to get things moving again. Today, the fed-funds target rate is nearly zero.

Baby boomers then in their prime earning and spending years have since lost trillions of dollars in net worth, with uncertain retirement and health benefits.

U.S. consumers in 1983 hadn't yet embarked on a 20-year debt binge. Household debt was 62% of disposable income, a level that had endured since the 1960s.

That percentage now stands at 122%, even with debt growth stalled for the past two years.

The outlook for regulation and taxes is likely different now than in 1983. The market has proven it can endure higher taxes and more regulation, but they make Wall Street squirm.

"Inflation is going higher, unemployment is going higher, taxes are going higher, regulation is going higher and debt is going lower," Dan Greenhaus, chief economic strategist at Miller Tabak, told clients on Friday. "1983 this is not."

Investors Hope It's a 1983 Flashback - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB125772177019637211.html?mod=WSJ_hpp_sections_mar kets)

This Health Care bill will be the finishing blow. Look at England - WWII put them in the whole and their Health Care system kept them there.

Earnings Season will be over soon and reality will set back in. Credit Card companies keep getting increasing defaults as unemployment goes up.

Evil-Eye

11-10-2009, 05:45 AM

This sums up my thoughts about yesterday.

YouTube - Cypress Hill - Insane In The Membrane (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zAlNrtcPCLw)

I was never a Dow student but maybe I should start.

StockCharts.com - ChartSchool - Dow Theory (http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:market_analysis:dow_theor y)

Evil-Eye

11-10-2009, 08:24 PM

I married the put position and missed this signal....

http://img36.imageshack.us/img36/1180/fas11100960m.png

and this move.

http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/811/foskn111009.gif

keep an eye on the volume for the reversal. I am not convinced that this market can make a new high. The goberment is running out of rabbits to pull out of it's sleeves.

Evil-Eye

11-10-2009, 08:40 PM

Here is some relaxing music.

Viddler.com - Christopher Cross ~ Sailing HQ Audio - Uploaded by SmoothJazz (http://www.viddler.com/explore/SmoothJazz/videos/5/)

YouTube - Escape (The Pina Colada Song) (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ntnt6PeQqGQ)

YouTube - James Ingram & Michael McDonald - Yah Mo B There (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7HbbM-FG8lQ)

YouTube - Doobie Brothers with Michael Mcdonald - Minute By Minute - w/ chords (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H_GmuIHL_EM&feature=fvw)

YouTube - Kenny Loggins "This Is It" (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=d7-e6Yhu5SU)

YouTube - Billy Ocean - Caribbean Queen (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dkXV5O5GfJ8)

Evil-Eye

11-11-2009, 05:44 PM

Doji

http://img121.imageshack.us/img121/2600/dia111109d.png (http://img121.imageshack.us/i/dia111109d.png/)

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/6961/dia11110960.png (http://img691.imageshack.us/i/dia11110960.png/)

Lets see how this reacts.

http://img260.imageshack.us/img260/9808/hxdwn111109.gif (http://img260.imageshack.us/i/hxdwn111109.gif/)

Evil-Eye

11-11-2009, 08:15 PM

NYSE Bullish Percent Chart | Charts | Live (http://www.learningmarkets.com./index.php/Live/Charts/nyse-bullish-percent-chart.html)

Evil-Eye

11-13-2009, 08:15 PM

Evil-Eye

11-14-2009, 08:34 AM

http://img35.imageshack.us/img35/8312/rifin111309d.png

http://img94.imageshack.us/img94/9195/indu111309d.png

I think this has some significance to it. Feel free to share your opinions.

Evil-Eye

11-14-2009, 08:44 AM

Are the Financials a Leading Indicator? - BusinessWeek (http://www.businessweek.com/investing/insights/blog/archives/2009/05/are_the_financi.html)

Evil-Eye

11-14-2009, 08:51 AM

I have posted this before but it is a great video to illustrate the above.

YouTube - How to time the market using price and volume (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FOrkGF6Y4kY)

Evil-Eye

11-14-2009, 09:00 AM

I just found this while tooling around on this guys site.

YouTube - 11-13-09 Weekend Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WmW1T22koxk)

Evil-Eye

11-14-2009, 05:01 PM

YouTube - Hindery Says True U.S. Unemployment Rate Is About 20%: Video (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sRZjNzD5Ghc)

Evil-Eye

11-16-2009, 08:47 PM

Things are getting worse as the dow keeps going up.

[ ?

Evil-Eye

11-17-2009, 05:18 AM

http://img687.imageshack.us/img687/1025/rifin111609d.png

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/5113/indu111609d.png

Evil-Eye

11-19-2009, 06:12 AM

YouTube - 11-18-09 Market Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yRXqIaRckAs)

Evil-Eye

11-19-2009, 06:50 AM

BullandBearWise Index of Economic and Market Indicators (http://www.bullandbearwise.com/)

Evil-Eye

11-19-2009, 10:56 AM

FAZ up 6% and the Dec 18 Call was up 36% when I checked last.

Evil-Eye

11-19-2009, 01:21 PM

In the third quarter, 9.64% of all mortgage loans were delinquent, according to a report released on Thursday by the Mortgage Bankers Association. That represents 4.5 million borrowers and is an increase from 9.24% in the prior three months. .....

The delinquency rate includes all mortgage loans that are at least one payment past due but does not include loans in some stage of foreclosure.

The combined percentage of loans in foreclosure or at least one payment past due was 14.41% on a non-seasonally adjusted basis, the highest ever recorded in the MBA delinquency survey.

Record number of mortgage loans are delinquent - Nov. 19, 2009 (http://money.cnn.com/2009/11/19/real_estate/mortgage_delinquencies_report/)

Evil-Eye

11-20-2009, 06:42 AM

YouTube - Gold Stocks - Bearish Reversal Signal - Market Top? (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uUVYoGnpJnY&feature=sub)

Evil-Eye

11-20-2009, 06:43 AM

YouTube - Nov. 19: Stocks Pummeled by Stronger Dollar (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yGQ4fL3hTuE)

Evil-Eye

11-23-2009, 08:51 PM

http://img691.imageshack.us/img691/3023/fas112309d.png (http://img691.imageshack.us/i/fas112309d.png/)

http://img145.imageshack.us/img145/811/rifin1123091hr.png (http://img145.imageshack.us/i/rifin1123091hr.png/)

http://img42.imageshack.us/img42/3811/fewlr112309.gif (http://img42.imageshack.us/i/fewlr112309.gif/)

This is dated info but it is interesting to see who holds FAZ.

Insider Holdings Summary (Ownership) for Direxion Funds (FAZ) - NASDAQ.com (http://www.nasdaq.com/asp/holdings.asp?symbol=FAZ&symbol=FAS&selected=FAZ)

Evil-Eye

11-23-2009, 08:55 PM

YouTube - 11-23-09 Market Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Kc_2IKF1Vdo&feature=sub)

Evil-Eye

11-25-2009, 02:24 PM

http://img265.imageshack.us/img265/8893/fas1124091d.png (http://img265.imageshack.us/i/fas1124091d.png/)

Evil-Eye

11-25-2009, 03:45 PM

YouTube - Stock Market Technical Analysis 11/24/09 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rYSWCYnmoh8)

Evil-Eye

11-26-2009, 11:20 AM

Dubai Debt Delay Rattles Confidence in Gulf Borrowers (Update3) - Bloomberg.com (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aRsjlClzl500)

Evil-Eye

11-27-2009, 09:05 AM

All I can say is I am glad I have Puts instead of Calls. I have no idea how far down it will go or how long the correction will last. A lot will have to do with what the Middle East will do.

Evil-Eye

11-29-2009, 12:05 AM

YouTube - 11-28-09 Weekend Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EzE1Bgut288)

Evil-Eye

11-29-2009, 11:30 AM

Ultimate Leading Indicator: Yield Curve - Stone Fox Capital -- Seeking Alpha (http://seekingalpha.com/instablog/234751-stone-fox-capital/35446-ultimate-leading-indicator-yield-curve)

Evil-Eye

11-29-2009, 11:54 AM

StockCharts Blogs - Don't Ignore This Chart! - Yield curve widens (http://blogs.stockcharts.com/dont_ignore_this_chart/2009/11/yield-curve-widens.html)

http://blogs.stockcharts.com/.a/6a0105370026df970c0128756fa627970c-800wi

Evil-Eye

12-01-2009, 08:18 PM

Krazy stuff! I have been too busy having to work my real job to watch this. Hopefully I am back.

http://img686.imageshack.us/img686/6480/rifin1201091h.png

http://img205.imageshack.us/img205/6118/rifin120109d.png

http://img18.imageshack.us/img18/2641/rifin120109we.png

YouTube - 12-01-09 Market Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cno8bFpqAY8)

Evil-Eye

12-01-2009, 08:27 PM

YouTube - "Meet Me On The Equinox" - Death Cab For Cutie (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bjIErrcr75A)

Evil-Eye

12-03-2009, 08:41 AM

http://img6.imageshack.us/img6/1280/rifin1202091hr.png (http://img6.imageshack.us/i/rifin1202091hr.png/)

Evil-Eye

12-03-2009, 08:48 AM

Evil-Eye

12-03-2009, 08:55 AM

http://img46.imageshack.us/img46/3084/tnx120209.png (http://img46.imageshack.us/i/tnx120209.png/)

Evil-Eye

12-03-2009, 03:09 PM

BofA Cheer Boosts Futures - WSJ.com (http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704107104574573501450513052.html?m od=googlenews_wsj)

This should push the RIFIN up into resistance - 785 to 795. On Friday - Payroll numbers come out.

$RIFIN high of the day as of printing this.
785.71 - they didn't let that one go to far before they hit it.

I don't like making predictions because it causes my EGO to take over and that gets me in trouble.

I personally have a down side bias right now. When I last checked there were more Puts on FAS for Jan. Dec was kind of even but I need to recheck that skew.

Evil-Eye

12-03-2009, 07:08 PM

YouTube - 12-03-09 Market Update (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tIPk-ekKURM)

Evil-Eye

12-05-2009, 06:46 AM

http://www.marke****ch.com/story/us-stocks-to-get-another-run-at-jobs-and-retail-2009-12-05

Evil-Eye

12-05-2009, 09:39 PM

Swing Trading: Rules and Philosophy
Posted By: Linda Bradford Raschke

Linda Bradford Raschke

My style is based on the “Taylor Trading Technique”, a short-term method for trading daily price movements that relies entirely on odds and percentages . It is a method as opposed to a system. Very few people can blindly follow a system, though many find it easier to be discretionary in a systematic way.

Because this short-term swing technique generates frequent trades, it is important to know the “correct plays,” to lock in profits, and to seek the “true trend.” Taking a loss is merely playing for better position. One trades strictly for probable future results, not for what the market might do.

To know the “correct play” is to know whether to buy or sell first, to exit or hold. Trades are based on “objective points,” which are simply the previous day’s high and low. Movement between these two points determines the “true trend.”

When swing trading, adjust your expectations. The lower your expectations, the happier you will be and, ironically, the more money you will probably make! Entries are a piece of cake, but you must also trust yourself to get out of bad situations and trades. It is important to use tighter stops when trading swings and wider stops when trading trends.

This method teaches you to anticipate! Never react! Know what you are going to do before the market opens. Always have a plan–but be flexible! “See” your stop (support or resistance) before initiating a trade. Know how to trade out of trouble situations and get off the hook with the smallest possible loss.

Finally, never trade in narrow, dead markets. The swings are too small. Never chase a market. Rather than worry that you’ve missed a move, think instead, “Oh, boy! I’ve got oscillations and volatility back…”

Basic Rules for Swing Traders

But first–the rules! Because of the short-term nature of this technique, swing traders must adhere to some very basic rules, including:

But first–the rules! Because of the short-term nature of this technique, swing traders must adhere to some very basic rules, including:

If the trade moves in your favor, carry it overnight–the odds favor follow-through. Expect to exit the next day around the objective point. An overnight gap presents an excellent opportunity to take profits. Concentrating on only one entry or one exit per day relieves the pressure.
If your entry is correct, the market should move favorably almost immediately. It may come back to test and/or exceed your entry point a little, but that’s OK.
Do not carry a losing position overnight. Exit and play for better position the next day.
A strong close indicates a strong opening the following day.
If the market doesn’t perform as expected, exit on the first reaction.
If the market offers you a windfall of big profits, take them to the bank on the close.
If you are long and the market closes flat, indicating a lower opening the following day, scratch or exit the trade. Play for better position the next day.
It is always OK to scratch a trade!
Use tight stops when swing trading (wider stops when trading trend).
The goal always is to minimize risk and create “Freebies.”
When in doubt–get out! You have lost your road map and your game plan!
Place your orders at the market.
When the trade isn’t working, exit on the first reaction.
ANTICIPATE!
Swing Trading: Rules and Philosophy By Linda Bradford Raschke - Traders Log (http://www.traderslog.com/swing-trading-rules/)