Swine Flu Plays

[Aufan 1983]

4-27-09

Here is a short list of stocks I have came up with that is reaping the rewards of the swine flu. I have did no dd on these companies so be careful. The pps is at the time of this post.


NVAX 3.39

DVAX 1.17

GSK @ 31.00

HEB @ .75

SVA @ 2.66

VICL @ 3.00

HALO @ 6.17

PLBI @ 007

HGSI @ 1.51

AEMD @ .26

[Aufan 1983]

another list I found. Some of these are above.

NVAX uses a virus-like particle platform technology for infectious diseases including multiple strains of influenza, H5N1, shingles and Respiratory Syncytial Virus.

ADLS has a leading candidate called Cethromycin, a novel once-a-day oral antibiotic under review by the FDA for the treatment of mild-to-moderate community acquired pnemonia. It’s also completed Phase III clinical trials for the treatment of respiratory tract infections.

BCRX engages in the design, optimization, and development of novel drugs that block enzymes involved in cancer, viral infections, cardiovascular diseases, and autoimmune diseases.

GNVC is developing a product called TherAtoh, a potential vaccination for respiratory syncytial virus, HSV-2, malaria, HIV and foot-and-mouth disease.

DVAX products specifically modify the innate immune response to infectious, respiratory, autoimmune, and inflammatory diseases.

HEB develops multiple products for the treatment of West Nile Virus, SARS, genital wards and Myalgic Encephalomyelitis / Chronic Fatigue Syndrome.

HGSI development pipeline includes drugs to treat inhalation anthrax, hepatitis C and lupus.

IMM programs include hepatitis C virus, fungal diseases, and multi-drug resistant strains of bacterial infections.

INHX develops anti-infective products to treat serious infections including shingles, chicken pox and herpes.

INSM engages in the development of recombinant protein drugs. Their IPLEX product is a complex of recombinant human IGF-1 and its binding protein IGFBP-3 for use in the treatment of several serious medical conditions.

SVA engages in the sale of vaccines that protect against human infectious diseases primarily in China. Their Anflu drug provides a split virus influenza vaccine.

VICL develops products based on its DNA delivery technologies for the prevention and treatment of diseases including H5N1 pandemic influenza virus and cytomegalovirus.


MCET has a $1.4M market cap and is trading at $0.01. According to the company’s website, their MCT-465 drug candidate is a Toll-like Receptor (TLR) agonist, and is indicated as prospective therapy for treatment of virus infections including influenza A H1N1 and the “avian flu” virus.

HALO has a treatment called Gammagard. It’s a sterilized solution made from human plasma that contains the antibodies to help your body protect itself against infection from various diseases. A $30 billion company, Baxter International (BAX), has partnered with HALO for the distribution of Gammagard and must pay royalties for its use.

AVII is developing drugs for the treatment of rare viruses and conducts research in collaboration with the U.S. Army. The majority of this collaboration has been supported by a research contract from the Department of Defense’s Transformational Medical Technologies Iniative with the goal of developing new antiviral drugs.

XOMA is currently engaged in more than 16 active development projects across multiple therapeutic areas including autoimmune and infectious disease. The company has ongoing contracts with the National Institutes of Health (NIH), National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease (NIAID) to develop monoclonal antibody products.

LWLLE is engaged in the development, manufacture, sale and distribution of disinfectant health care products including hand disinfectants, surface disinfectants, equipment disinfectants, machine disinfectants and animal disinfectants.


I doubt any of these stocks will actually prevent/cure Swine Flu but history proves that epidemic plays in the stock market can breakout to absurd prices.

[Aufan 1983]

Wow after reading this from FOX news I went in deep on GSK @ 31.25 and DVAX @ 1.10

FOXNews.com - Swine Flu Fears Close Numerous Schools in Several States - Infectious Disease (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517958,00.html)

[Volatile22]

Great idea to go with some of these on the recent "swine flu" news. Thanks Aufan!

[Volatile22]

Pig Flu Companies, Ready for a Swine Flu Outbreak | Pig Flu (http://pigflu.com/content/pig-flu-companies-ready-swine-flu-outbreak)

http://seekingalpha.com/article/133167-three-companies-that-could-benefit-from-swine-flu

[Aufan 1983]

Thanks for the info Vol.

Tonight on FOX

FOXNews.com - Swine Flu Fears Close Numerous Schools in Several States - Infectious Disease (http://www.foxnews.com/story/0,2933,517958,00.html)

[thegreatgate]

Vivienne Allan, from WHO's patient safety program, said the body had confirmed that worldwide there had been just seven deaths - all in Mexico - and 79 confirmed cases of the disease.

"Unfortunately that [150-plus deaths] is incorrect information and it does happen, but that's not information that's come from the World Health Organisation," Ms Allan told ABC Radio today.

Only 7 swine flu deaths, not 152, says WHO | smh.com.au (http://www.smh.com.au/world/only-7-swine-flu-deaths-not-152-says-who-20090429-aml1.html)



Regular flu has killed thousands this year:
Regular flu has killed thousands since January - CNN.com (http://www.cnn.com/2009/HEALTH/04/28/regular.flu/index.html)

[CaptD]

How about this info:
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld sees growth in Gilead stake - Oct. 31, 2005 (http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/)

[Aufan 1983]

How about this info:
Defense Secretary Rumsfeld sees growth in Gilead stake - Oct. 31, 2005 (http://money.cnn.com/2005/10/31/news/newsmakers/fortune_rumsfeld/)

Thanks for the info Capt.

This flu thing is continually getting worse. More states have confirmed cases now and here in Alabama they are closing a school in Huntsville due to a couple of suspected cases.


I have seen the figures Vol posted but what those stories are not adding is that the normal winter type flu that hits is killing mostly elderly and those with already weak health. Also keep in mind that there is flu shots for those strains. This flu is just getting started and is spreading like wild fire and there is nothing they can do to contain it.

The saving grace could be that most school systems are about to turn kids out for summer vacation.

[thegreatgate]

Below is an article from Jason Kelly's "week in review" which comes out every Sunday. There is a small piece on the Swine Flu..........It is his opinion, not mine. He is a conservative, long-term trader, he doesn't get in and out of stocks like most of us on SMC. Anyhow, by posting this article please do not think I am bashing swine flu plays, I just thought it was a nice read. In fact, my wife is from Mexico and she thinks the swine flu is a huge pandemic. She watches the Mexican news on tv all the time for the latest information. I was furious the other day because after the Swine Flu was playing non-stop in the media she acted like the world was gonna end and sent her mom $400 (her mom lives in Mexico). I thought the $400 was a bit much. We send her money all the time (just about every month) and we are struggling financially ourselves so it is difficult to kiss that money goodbye when I feel like we just sent her money a couple weeks prior. Anyways, here is the article....
SWINE FLU'S PANDEMIC OF FEAR
By Jason Kelly

Swine flu. What a joke. Every year, the media get more desperate for ways to rile up the masses as the masses are ever more zoned out in front of game consoles and whatever else they waste time on.

It seems the word "pandemic" still packs firepower, now that Hollywood has made it the focus of a few blockbusters. The phrase "swine flu" combined with "pandemic" was too good to pass up, so it became the news item with the biggest media footprint year to date.

People are so out of touch, they stopped eating pork. Real news flash: it was never communicable via cooked meat. It was only communicable via exposure to infected pigs, and very few people experience that. Had anybody bothered to read past the headlines, they might have noticed.

For that matter, had anybody bothered to read history, they might have noticed this wasn't the first time we've seen a pandemic scare in the media, nor even the first time we've seen a swine flu scare. The first swine flu scare happened all the way back in 1976, and we seemed to have pulled through that one intact. We also survived SARS in 2003 and bird flu in 2005. I guess we were due for a new one.

The word "pandemic" needs to be reserved for true population-threatening outbreaks. One way for journalists to make sure it's reserved for such moments would be to read its definition. From Merriam-Webster, a pandemic is an "[Epidemic] occurring over a wide geographic area and affecting an exceptionally high proportion of the population."

Did swine flu ever qualify? No. Less than 400 people were infected in the source country of Mexico, and less than 20 died. A single plane crash or train wreck affects more people, and some auto accidents are deadlier.

Moreover, it wasn't even deadly as far as influenza strains go. The U.S. reports an average of 36,000 deaths per year from influenza. That's about 100 people per day in normal times, yet swine flu with its total body count of less than 20 turned into a news story so big that the president of the United States felt compelled to urge Americans to stay calm, but wash their hands and cover their mouths when coughing.

Vice President Joe Biden went further, saying on the Today show last week: "I wouldn't go anywhere in confined places now. It's not going to Mexico, it's you're in a confined aircraft when one person sneezes it goes all the way through the aircraft. That's me. I would not be, at this point, if they had another way of transportation, suggesting they ride the subway. So from my perspective, what it relates to is mitigation. If you're out in the middle of a field and someone sneezes, that's one thing. If you're in a closed aircraft or a closed container, a closed car, a closed classroom, it's a different thing."

Then again, why go out of the house at all? The right thing would have been to issue a nationwide lockdown where only those with enough rations to wait out the pandemic could survive. Don't forward this to any politicians. They'd probably run with it.

In case you're wondering what real pandemics look like, here's a quick summary. The bubonic plague wiped out half of Europe's population between 550 and 700 (Think the news cycle could keep people interested for 150 years?). Black Death, which was probably also bubonic plague, killed 75 million people in the four years from 1347 to 1351. More recently, the 1968 Hong Kong Flu killed 750,000.

Just to recap, swine flu killed less than 20. That's so far. A week ago, the figure was around 200, then dropped to 100, so the next stop may be zero.

Yesterday, Mexican Health Secretary Jose Cordova said, "The attack rate is not as broad as was thought." You don't say. Some of us never did think it was broad. Perhaps health officials could employ a little common sense in future situations so they don't stumble into panicky assessments based on thin data.

The only good to come of this news cycle was a reminder to thinkers like you that media need to be taken with more than a grain of salt, they need a 50-pound block.

[CaptD]

Has the flu "flown"; I still don't think we have seen the last of this BUT it is interesting to note that the Peso is now at 13.8 to the dollar and that in itself means that Mexico is taking another huge Financial hit, (Just after getting many Billions to try and help their economy)... I still believe that this flu was an engineered bio flu that was released in Mexico, prior to Obama attending the major conference there.
:O

[cobra1049]

TV News just tell us that we are in Stage 6 about the swine flu!!! at 5 pm

[walkthytalk]

4-27-09

Here is a short list of stocks I have came up with that is reaping the rewards of the swine flu. I have did no dd on these companies so be careful. The pps is at the time of this post.


NVAX 3.39

DVAX 1.17

GSK @ 31.00

HEB @ .75

SVA @ 2.66

VICL @ 3.00

HALO @ 6.17

PLBI @ 007

HGSI @ 1.51

AEMD @ .26
Add ASFX to that list. Their online sales have gone through the roof, as has the pps.

[Theboundbook]

Add ASFX to that list. Their online sales have gone through the roof, as has the pps.

And are these companies still holding overall as Swine Flu in the news fades??? Or are they an 'in and out' dealio and must be babysat not only cuz they're penny stocks but definite 'topic stocks of the week'?

[KittyCat]

Does anyone know the names of the 5 companies the US government is buying the vaccine from?

I read a very interesting article on that - but no names were mentioned. :(