In spite of a super strong economic growth and reports and stability in their country, the popular and 12 year veteran Prime Minister, John Howard, was defeated in elections today!

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapc...ion/index.html

His opponent, named Kevin Rudd, is a staunch opposite from that of Howard in policies...and he has promised swift and sharp policy changes in Australia for trade and politics and involvement--especially in the IRAQ war and in trade with other nations.. He has made promises to cut off sales of Uranium to Inda, to pull out of Iraq immediately and also to sharply expand trade deals with China...

This could have sweeping and severe effects on the value of the AUD on open tomorrow, and for the coming months, and also effect NZD and perhaps JPY and similar carry traders.. Depending on how the Market views this--which I would believe it would have a very sharp effect, it could quickly bolster and send the AUD flying towards .95 and parity with the US Dollar...but also depending on how the market reacts to the change and future implications for Australia and trade in that area, it could just as quickly send this pair running back to a "safe" level about 1000-1500 pips back from where it is now...

So a big heads up to all you Aussie dollar & NZD traders (like me :D)...things are setting up to get potentially wild in swings and sharp moves on this currency over the next few weeks/months...hold onto your hats. :D

FXW

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Read up about Kevin Rudd and some of the Aussie changes planned here...

http://www.cnn.com/2007/WORLD/asiapc...tml#cnnSTCText

FXW

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Head and shoulder pattern on the Aussie. I dont look for it to go past the right shoulder..

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Until this drops below .8600, I'm still seeing .90 as a viable trade target Long on the AUD/USD.... at .8794--I think a good buy area would be around .8750 to Long the pair...

FXW

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If the support is held at 0.9100 we should have a good opportunity for going long AUD/USD. First resistance at 0.9240 and if this is taken then we should see a new test to the upside breaking 0.9500.

If AUD/USD starts breaking to the downside, your stop loss should be at 0.9093.It would signal a short opportunity if it breaks below this point..

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I'm watching the Aussie dollar as well for a move in either direction...moreso the AUD/JPY....Aussie is in for a big move (about 300-400 pips) in the near term of the next couple weeks IMO. Its bouncing around right now...

The RBA held rates at 7.25% yesterday--may be a rate cut in the future...but I am not seeing any major pressure for them to do anything except hold rates as they are...

In the grander scheme for the AUD/USD--I think we are gonna see around .8700's possible for a SHORT and near .9600 for a LONG...depending on which way she goes..

FXW

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So did anyone else catch all or part of the big AUD/JPY ride I had given early warning about last tuesday? Broke 92.50 resistance shortly after the post and has run up to 95.00....there were lots of trades to be done in that puppy if folks were payin attention.. We could see it tag 96.00 or above before it holds and settles down a bit...see how it goes..

AUD/USD is well on its way...broke above .9150 last week to over .9250 today.. Now holding where Greencat noted the resistance would be at just above .9240.. It broke over it--as long as it holds it should leave more highs in store for this pair in the mid term to look towards .9500 as greencat noted. Slow goings on this pair...but its got that boat-anchor called the USDollar to drag around...but its still doin well...


FXW

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Aussies have their CPI due out tonite around 9:30 EST.....watch for some possible whippy action.

FXW

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DJ MARKET TALK: AUD/USD Could Test 0.9500 If CPI High - Deutsche

Tue Apr 22 20:38:51 2008
EDT



0038 GMT [Dow Jones] AUD/USD softening before much-awaited 1Q CPI at 0130
GMT, probably led by position squaring, but a market forecast-beating number
would push pair back towards recent highs around 0.9500, says Deutsche Bank
strategist John Horner. Says house is looking for higher than forecast print on
underlying and core measures; "given that, there's a good chance the numbers
will further boost the Australian dollar and maybe challenge the highs from
earlier this year around 0.9500." Expects support at 0.9390 with pair now at
0.9453. Market expects core CPI +0.9% on-quarter.(EGC)

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Broke over 95..the CPI was higher than forecast--but not by a ton which really would have kicked it... AUD/JPY was a good trade better than the AUD.USD...but news trades are good for only about 20-40 pips anyway..and not a long hold. Still worked out tho..

CPI was 1.1% forecast and 1.3% actual...it would have been better if it was 1.7 or something..but it was not...but its still a decent number to give it a little momentum. Trick is now if it will hold...will know by London open..

FXW

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