NASDAQ, AMEX, NYSE Stocks Discuss 14000??? in the Stock Market Forum forums; Well.......is today the day that the DJI breaks 14k? I'll say...........YES!!!!:D:D ....but Im not betting on it...lol...Im just trying to "will" ...

**Grizzums** · #1 07-16-2007, 04:35 PM

Well.......is today the day that the DJI breaks 14k? I'll say...........YES!!!!:D:D ....but Im not betting on it...lol...Im just trying to "will" it there as it really doesnt appear like today is the actual day....

View from my favorite HF Mgr...

"Stocks Mixed into Final Hour as Lower Rates, Buyout Activity, Positive Economic Data Offset by Subprime Concerns, Profit-taking

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in Retail longs, Internet longs and Semi longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is mildly negative today as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are declining and volume is below average. It is interesting to note the recent uptick in “bull-mocking” by the “permabears.” I would expect to see this near a major market bottom, not anywhere near a top. This is just further evidence of the “U.S. negativity bubble”, in my opinion. It appears the bears' strategy is to take investors' focus off of their own numerous failed calls as the major averages surge once again to records. By chastising the bulls, however, the "fearleaders" are just drawing more attention to their own analysis. Investors would be well-served to perform historical searches on the bears' dire commentary to remind themselves of what they have been told since the major bear market lows of October 2002. The bears' scary predictions during periods of high market stress have been especially telling. The S&P 500 is up 111.5% since the 2002 low, averaging a 17% return on an annualized basis. It is also notable, considering the view by most that oil can only go higher, that the gasoline crack spread has collapsed 40% in five days and is down 17% just today. Moreover, the spread has plunged 57% from the highs seen in mid-May, around when gasoline futures peaked for the year. As well, gasoline futures are dropping another 3.5% today and convincingly breaking down through the uptrend that has been in place since December of last year. The contango in the oil futures market, which encouraged hoarding, is also beginning to reverse meaningfully for the first time in years. This is also occurring when crude oil large speculative traders have never been more net long oil futures and commercial hedgers, historically the “smart money,” have never been more net short oil. I suspect we are within six weeks of another major tradable top in oil, similar to the one seen last year before the commodity plunged $28 per barrel in less than six months. Like last year, this decline should provide another huge upside catalyst for the broad market. I plan to meaningfully increase my energy-related short exposure again over the next six weeks. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on lower long-term rates, buyout speculation and lower commodity prices."

**BadThad** · #2 07-17-2007, 12:46 AM

Great view, I like his outlook and break-down.

Thanks Griz.

**BadThad** · #3 07-17-2007, 10:54 AM

Looks like it's going to happen today Griz, market is taking off this morning.

Doc Holliday · #4 07-17-2007, 11:11 AM

yep, looking good for it
I'm a little less bearish on it because of high probability of the banking sectors exceeding expectations this week but it could be that they are already factored into this current rally. Just like KO, it came in above expectations this morning but is 5¢ down this morning due to cramer pumping it this and last week.
I'm going to be looking to transfer my 401K to bonds tomorrow or Thursday, depending on how the market trades, just because I'm expecting a normal retraction soon myself and a normal 5%-10% is a lot of points

**BadThad** · #5 07-17-2007, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Doc Holliday

yep, looking good for it
I'm a little less bearish on it because of high probability of the banking sectors exceeding expectations this week but it could be that they are already factored into this current rally. Just like KO, it came in above expectations this morning but is 5¢ down this morning due to cramer pumping it this and last week.
I'm going to be looking to transfer my 401K to bonds tomorrow or Thursday, depending on how the market trades, just because I'm expecting a normal retraction soon myself and a normal 5%-10% is a lot of points

A retraction will be fact....take profits soon. I don't do bonds, but I'll hang on to the $$$ until the dip is over, then go bargin hunting. I love when the market does this because I can always reload my fav long stocks.

**Grizzums** · #6 07-17-2007, 11:46 AM

I agree with both of you. Id be looking at taking some profits soon, probably after q 2 earnings are winding down...

More retail getting in can sometimes signal near a temp top, but I will make no predictions there... But with summer here and no real catalyst out there after earnings to take the markret higher, I think that is when we can see that contraction.... Mutinationsla will continue to do well this q since the dollar continues to lose ground....

I hope no fed easing, and I don't think there will be.

Be prepared for more "noise" of a marker crashing, IMHO. To that effect, I have no comment, I've been hearing that sentiment for the past few years...... If it is said long enough eventually the market will turn and that noise will say, "see, I told you so" lol, but the question is, since that noise has lasted several years, will the prediction really be considered accurate? Lol I'm not referinh to any groups in particular, just the overall "noise".

Good luck.

**BadThad** · #7 07-17-2007, 11:53 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grizzums

I agree with both of you. Id be looking at taking some profits soon, probably after q 2 earnings are winding down...

More retail getting in can sometimes signal near a temp top, but I will make no predictions there... But with summer here and no real catalyst out there after earnings to take the markret higher, I think that is when we can see that contraction.... Mutinationsla will continue to do well this q since the dollar continues to lose ground....

I hope no fed easing, and I don't think there will be.

Be prepared for more "noise" of a marker crashing, IMHO. To that effect, I have no comment, I've been hearing that sentiment for the past few years...... If it is said long enough eventually the market will turn and that noise will say, "see, I told you so" lol, but the question is, since that noise has lasted several years, will the prediction really be considered accurate? Lol I'm not referinh to any groups in particular, just the overall "noise".

Good luck.

Arrgggg...don't say the "F" word! LOL I hate them and their big, mouth! Ben (and Alan) can kiss my brown starfish! lmao

I don't think we'll see a "crash", but there will be a modest dip IMO....we've all seen it many times before, nothing new. Just a good time to hunt for those blue-light specials. ;)

**BadThad** · #8 07-17-2007, 11:59 AM

Doesn't this bring you to sickness? I always just wanted him to SHUT UP. LOL

orange · #9 07-17-2007, 12:02 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Grizzums

I agree with both of you. Id be looking at taking some profits soon, probably after q 2 earnings are winding down...
More retail getting in can sometimes signal near a temp top, but I will make no predictions there... But with summer here and no real catalyst out there after earnings to take the markret higher, I think that is when we can see that contraction.... Mutinationsla will continue to do well this q since the dollar continues to lose ground....
I hope no fed easing, and I don't think there will be.
Be prepared for more "noise" of a marker crashing, IMHO. To that effect, I have no comment, I've been hearing that sentiment for the past few years...... If it is said long enough eventually the market will turn and that noise will say, "see, I told you so" lol, but the question is, since that noise has lasted several years, will the prediction really be considered accurate? Lol I'm not referinh to any groups in particular, just the overall "noise".
Good luck.

:elefant:
LOL- i know you're talking abt me, Grizz and it's okay. but i only started singing the crash song last august and forecasted it for sometime in Q2 ... still, i remain firm in my conviction on this- it begins soon. but i have to agree, ppl say things and say things and then when they finally happen they say, "See, i'm a market guru" LOL. frankly, if you asked me two weeks ago could dow hit 14,000 i'd have laughed at the idea.

**Grizzums** · #10 07-17-2007, 12:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by orange

:elefant:
LOL- i know you're talking abt me, Grizz and it's okay. but i only started singing the crash song last august and forecasted it for sometime in Q2 ... still, i remain firm in my conviction on this- it begins soon. but i have to agree, ppl say things and say things and then when they finally happen they say, "See, i'm a market guru" LOL. frankly, if you asked me two weeks ago could dow hit 14,000 i'd have laughed at the idea.

Lol... No, I wasn't referring to you Dennis...

But I did throw that disclaimer in there for ya, because I thought you might think that if you popped on here to read.

Actuallly miss your thoughts in general, but I understand you are probably busy.

This sentiment about a crash is nothing new. I have heard it plenty and long before last august....it just keeps getting louder the more that record short interest grows, that's all...lol.