CVX - Chevron Corp. (NYSE Stock)

[BadThad]

Great oil play and nice divy's. I've played this one on and off for about a year now. With the price of oil going way, way up, this is a good bet. I'm currently in at 91.55. I predict CVX and XOM will be well over $100/sh by summer 2008. CVX paid a 0.65 divy last quarter, chaching!

CVX on Google Finance

Today's Price: $92.78

[BadThad]

Oil sets another high....and CVX goes up of course. ;)

NEWS

[BadThad]

Lawyers Pay Chevron! LOL

SAN FRANCISCO - A federal judge has sharply rebuked lawyers suing Chevron Corp. for allegedly causing cancer after polluting areas of Ecuador and ordered the lead attorney to pay a $45,000 fine after wrongly claiming that some of the purported victims were sick.

The judge also found that the three purported victims didn't even know that the lawyers were filing a federal lawsuit here in their names.

U.S. District Court Judge William Alsup ordered lawyer Cristobal Bonifaz to pay $45,000 to Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) by the end of the year for not properly investigating whether his clients really had cancer. Alsup said if Bonifaz fails to pay, then two other attorneys on the case - Paul Hoffman and Terry Collingsworth - will be required to foot the bill.

The judge chastised the lawyers for failing to investigate the claims of their clients before suing Chevron on their behalf. In court papers, the lawyers said the names were given to them by an Ecuador paralegal who said she had documented that the clients had cancer.

"Counsel were obligated to investigate first and sue second, not the other way around," Alsup wrote in his ruling.

Alsup earlier this year removed the three clients from the case after it became clear they didn't have any legitimate claims.

"We definitely think that the claims brought in this case are reflective of the kind and quality of the other allegations that have been brought to bear in the litigation," Chevron spokesman Kent Robertson said.

The three were part of a group of seven Ecuadoreans who sued Chevron for personal injury last year, claiming that chemical dumping by Texaco Petroleum Co. before it was acquired by San Ramon-based Chevron had contaminated the rainforest region where they lived.

Bonifaz, an Ecuador native licensed to practice law in Massachusetts, didn't return a telephone call to his Amherst, Mass., office. Hoffman and Collingsworth said an appeal of the Tuesday order is being considered.

"It is extremely unfortunate that the focus has shifted to counsel for plaintiffs," Collingsworth said in an e-mail. "The focus should be that we are going to trial on Jan. 21, 2008 to prove our assertions regarding Chevron's extreme and outrageous conduct."

[BadThad]

Good article on oil stocks:

BlackRock fund manager bullish on crude prices, oil stocks
3:57p ET October 22, 2007 (MarketWatch)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Blackrock fund manager Bob Shearer says he remains bullish on crude prices and major oil stocks even as some players such as ConocoPhillips are expected to turn in lower profit in coming days.

Shearer, manager of the BlackRock Equity Dividend Fund , on Monday said the energy, materials and industrials sectors remain in vogue for producing solid returns amid rising demand for raw materials from China and other developing economies.

By contrast, the fund is still underweight on financial stocks, which remain mired in a credit crunch.

Even with oil now trading near $90 a barrel, Shearer sees a "bias to the upside" for crude prices as non-OPEC nations fall short of production goals and world oil demand continues to ratchet up.

Higher oil prices have been putting pressure on companies such as ConocoPhillips with a heavy reliance on refining and marketing -- the so-called downstream business, he said.

But even if ConocoPhillips -- which reports earnings Wednesday -- and other oil majors such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron turn in softer-than-expected results, BlackRock remains optimistic about returns from the sector, he said.

Oil companies are trading at a valuation of 10 to 12 times their earnings, lower than the broader market of 15 times earnings among the broader big cap sector, he said.

So far, BlackRock hasn't dived into a new crop of master limited partnerships (MLPs) stocks tied to energy assets because of the rising costs of drilling and the dwindling reserves in many U.S. properties, Shearer said.

BlackRock remains more interested in MLPs tied to pipeline businesses, which amount to collecting tolls rather than relying on a steady stream of energy coming out of the ground, he said.

Shearer said dividend paying stocks will play a larger role among U.S. investors as aging Baby Boomers look to the stock market to provide steady returns for retirement.

He said corporations may continue to channel profits into dividend hikes rather than stock buybacks if the U.S. government extends dividend tax cuts to 2010.

Overall, BlackRock's global opportunities team, which manages about $9.2 billion in assets, has been ramping up its emphasis on overseas investing since economies in Asia, Eastern Europe, and elsewhere have been growing much more rapidly than the U.S., said Tom Callan, portfolio manager.

"Gobal is the new core," Callan said during the company's equity roundtable luncheon with reporters.

Fund managers at the luncheon said evidence of a possible recession in the U.S. appears to be mounting, but it's still too early to say how far the current business slowdown will go.

[Grizzums]

As Oil Nears $100, Look Out Below

Analysts say that if speculators flee the market en masse, prices could drop even more quickly than they've risen


Oil prices are soaring. Having jumped 40% since August, crude prices hit another historic high on Nov. 6, rising to $96.70 a barrel. The factors sparking the $2.72 rally this time: bad weather in the North Sea that could force production cuts, the dollar's continued fall, more violence in the Middle East, and fears that U.S. crude supplies are low. The Energy Dept.'s Energy Information Administration will provide its weekly inventory report on Nov. 7.

But is there a sharp fall just ahead? Analysts say that the oil market looks overheated, and a number of factors could puncture the price bubble. Most important, speculators have played a key role in driving up crude prices this year, and if the trend reverses they'll get out fast. Certainly, global demand remains strong for now. But a number of factors—technical indicators, an economic slowdown, lower demand—could prompt investors to exit en masse.

"Oil prices are in uncharted territory," says Peter Fusaro, co-founder of the Energy Hedge Fund Center, which tracks commodities hedge funds. "My worry is that if the market tanks, everyone will want out at the same time. The market would collapse, and who knows what the bottom is."
Much Trading Remains Opaque

Speculators have played a growing role in the oil market in recent years (BusinessWeek.com,1/17/07). There are 595 hedge funds that engage in at least some energy trading now, more than triple the 180 funds involved just three years ago. Fusaro estimates the assets involved in such trading total more than $200 billion, up more than 60% from the beginning of the year.

It's tough to get a firm handle on the speculation. A large portion of trading takes place in the unregulated, over-the-counter market. Still, some of the trading in crude oil takes place on the New York Mercantile Exchange (NYMEX), and there the market is approaching a record in terms of the number of crude oil contracts that predict a price rise. Traders have committed to 135,000 contracts—each representing 1,000 barrels of crude—betting that prices will continue to rise. That's just shy of the record 155,000 contracts reached this summer.

Some analysts say that if the number of contracts rises sharply, oil prices could fall. "The exit signal for investors could be breaking through the 150,000 or 160,000 contract barrier," says Joel Fingerman, president of OilAnalytics.net, an energy consulting firm. "At that point investors could feel they're using all their bullets."
For Now, It's Full Steam Ahead

In the meantime however, investment continues to flood the crude oil market, as well as commodities in general. "The mentality now is very bullish," says Fingerman. "As long as money keeps flowing in, people will keep buying [oil] as though it's going to go to the moon."

The optimism has helped the stocks of the oil majors. ConocoPhillips (COP) is up nearly 40% (BusinessWeek.com, 10/26/07) over the past year. ExxonMobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX), British Petroleum (BP), and Royal Dutch Shell (RDSA) have posted similar if somewhat smaller gains.

Still, some analysts say the psychological impact of $100 oil could mark the beginning of a slip in prices. "The professionals will get out of the market at $98.50 or $98.99," says Peter Beutel, president of the energy risk management firm Cameron Hanover in New Canaan, Conn. "They're not going to wait for $100 to materialize."

But is there anything special about the $100 mark? Some experts think not. "The barrier was supposedly $70, $80, then $90, and we're past that. Why would $100 suddenly cause a reversal?" says Stephen Schork, an energy consultant in Villanova, Pa., and editor of the Schork Report, a daily energy newsletter. "$100 is not the death knell to the bull market."
A Correction Is Inevitable

Beutel says that regardless of the exit signal for investors, the oil market is due for a correction. "Historically speaking we see that every time there is a sustained vertical [price] rise, we see a 20% correction," says Beutel, adding that the serious threat of a recession could take 40% off oil prices. "It's a beautiful thing that people forget: The market moves more quickly on the downside than it does on the upside."

It's also possible that ballooning oil prices will begin to fall when demand responds to price signals, as happened in the 1980s. "The uptick in crude hasn't caused the same drag on the economy as it did 28 years ago," says Ray Carbone, owner of the trading firm Paramount Options. "But once we're past all-time highs in oil prices, things could change."

http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/...eek+exclusives

[BadThad]

Thanks Griz, interesting article.

"It's a beautiful thing that people forget: The market moves more quickly on the downside than it does on the upside."

No $hit Sherlock! LOL :P

[BadThad]

CVX is a great buy today.....PPS is down. ;)

[BadThad]

Upgrade:

Bear Stearns ups BP, Chevron, Marathon Oil on new oil call
5:23a ET November 27, 2007 (MarketWatch)
LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Bear Stearns lifted its forecast for WTI crude prices for 2008 to $75 a barrel from $60, and upgraded BP and Chevron to outperform from peer perform and Marathon Oil to peer perform from underperform. The brokerage also lifted its price targets on Total and Murphy Oil . "Our new forecast reflects the recent rise in oil prices, and our view that, while moderating fundamentals will continue to push oil prices lower, prices will be supported at a higher level than our previous estimates by ongoing geopolitical factors, cost inflation, a weaker U.S. dollar, and speculative interest in the commodity," the broker said. "We believe the international integrated oils are attractively valued, and our outlook for higher oil prices casts a compelling light on the group."

Last time I saw the oil stocks this low, I was kicking myself months later for not buying. CVX is trading down to $82.xx today, look at the charts for yourself.

[BadThad]

CVX up to $91.54 now.....see while I kick myself for not buying in the 80's level. From Nov 12th post to today was a $6 PPS swing.

[BadThad]

Some news today:

Chevron capital 2008 capital spending up 15% to $22.9 bln
9:10a ET December 6, 2007 (MarketWatch)
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Chevron said Thursday its capital spending budget for 2008 will weigh in at $22.9 billion, up 15% from $20 billion last year. Included in the 2008 program are $2.6 billion of expenditures by affiliates, which do not require cash outlays by Chevron's consolidated companies. "We have a portfolio of projects that will provide the foundation for our company's future growth," said Chairman and CEO Dave O'Reilly. O'Reilly said about 75% of the 2008 spending program is for upstream oil and gas exploration and production projects worldwide. Another 20% is dedicated to the company's downstream businesses that manufacture, transport and sell gasoline, diesel fuel and other refined products. The total budget for expenditures in the U.S. is approximately $8 billion.