Stop loss setting
So I was rethinking how I do my stop losses after they triggered a big loss on what would've 10 minutes later been the start of a gain.
Originally I was thinking stop losses should be essentially a tight leash that guarantees the entry point isn't too far wrong. Something on the order of 30 or so pips to protect yourself more than anything else. This seems to have problems with large runs and long time horizons though, and as far as I can tell likely fails if you're trading more than an half an hour.
This thought all jumped up at me on the eurjpy I tried to trade an hour ago which had jumped 400 pips and I wanted to bet on downward. I got killed with a stop loss about 30 pips above my entry and I feel like something failed there stop loss wise. Perhaps I entered poorly too, I'll evaluate that later when I have more data, but the stop loss issue seems more obvious to me at this moment.
Now I'm starting to think that maybe a preferable way in forex is to set stop losses is as a percentage of either the most recent run up, or as a percentage of your expected profit taking.
So take a case where you figure a 400 pip runup, and maybe a 100-200 pip gain on the way back down is possible.
Say I set my stop loss at 20% of the recent run up. That would've been 80 pips. Gives it additional room to run but not without any limit. Also ties risk and reward together, since a big stop loss distance, is only justified in the case of a previous huge run up.
Or maybe 30% of the expected gain on the way back down is better. in this case 30-60 pips.
Or is this just silly and the real problem is just my entry and I need to really pick the top with a high degree of accuracy and keep the tight fixed stop losses.
Gonna think about this some more. I might end up with a multi-approach to stop losses which has different approaches for different types of trades.
Last edited by Skydaemon; 01-25-2008 at 04:15 AM.
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