Very interesting Ciao. I like the theory on the K-Cycle and I partially agree, although I also disagree on the outcome this time.
First, as you know a period of 4 cycles is not very reliable for predicting precise timing of cycles with certainty. It could simply be a coincidence and a consequence of related factors which may follow but not always.
I will reinterpret your K-Cycle for you in terms of two concepts, one which I'll borrow from Karl Marx, and the last I'll steal from old cultures such as the chinese.
No I'm not going to argue for communism. I'll leave that to the US congress when it votes to buy everyone's houses for them with taxpayer money.
As your document notes, things like wars and such are prominent events in terms of K-Cycles. Although I haven't researched it I'd be willing to bet that's more than a minor coincidence.
1) Let's start by stealing something from Marx, namely the notion that all "value" (call money a proxy for it) is derived from basic labour. Labour originates from actual people, and possibly leveraged by machinery or other capital productivity investment. But in the end it's about the people (at least we haven't replaced them with robots totally yet). If you agree, then note that people come in "waves" which we often refer to as generations.
There can be some large bumps, most notably created after major wars. Note that the K-cycle described attributes some of it's phase beginnings to wars. Well what happens after big wars? Population boom after all the soldiers come home.
If you follow that I somewhat believe value and such come from labour. Also that wars relate to the population size and large population "bumps" passing through the system, then maybe you can guess what I will say next. That a K-Cycle is simply an analysis of the cycle of population booms passing through the economy, going through phases, and grating against other generations as they go.
One large population boom gives birth to another large population boom. Tensions strain as they near retirement or stop working, and wars break out over tensions, competition for resources, generational value struggles or whatever other reasons. Between nations as well as within them. Creating yet another population boom in the aftermath of a big war. I might argue that the beginning and end of K-Cycles has more to do with the retirement of one population boom, and the resurgence of newer generations replete with innovation.
Therefore I'd argue we know very well when our K-Winter will start, in about 2 years when the baby boomers retire. However I'd also argue that this time the recreation will be different, and so will the fall. This time the wars are spread out over 2 perhaps, vietnam and maybe our latest iraq war. Resulting in not one but 2 generations splitting the revival. And they're small relative to the retirement. As well, with an increase in life expectancy and working life the baby boomers may well drag out the start of the K-winter longer than normal by delaying their retirement, certainly relative to previous K-cycles. I think the deflation of credit may occur in parallel with the retirement phase, but that it will have to (I hope) kick back up sooner since the start of the next K-cycle is starting in overlap with the previous winter due to age mismatching.
2) Now I will steal something from the Chinese and say it means the same thing, and this has been noticed for a long long time. Chinese zodiacs. Ok now you think I'm crazy.
If I recall, it's not only that there are 12 zodiacs (dragon, rat, monkey etc etc), but also that they have individual varieties, 5 kinds. So it's not a 12 years cycle, but rather a 60 year cycle. Each has different fortunes and so on. The 5 varieties (so like there are 5 kinds of dragons) are also distinct from each other in various ways.
Nevermind the fact that they wrapped it in superstition and mystical stuff, just attribute that to the age of their civilization and how long ago they wrote this stuff down. The point is they were recognizing something important and real in the world that they had to describe somehow to use to their advantage. Sort of like feng shui. You may or may not believe in the details of feng shui, but most people can see the results and agree that there is something legitimate being described. "I had a hard time describing what's wrong with this house, but now I have a way to put the bad vibes into words. Your feng shui is all wrong!"
Same thing with chinese zodiacs I believe. Maybe they describe a pattern noticed over hundreds of years of cycles in generational opportunities, stresses and behaviours. Some combinations of which probably result in large wars. 12 years relates to your position within a generation, and the 5 cycles maybe notes that the relative population size of generations also ebbs and flows, perhaps in relation to the size of the wars and prosperity each is likely to become involved in. All as a result of population size and stresses and strains between such. The condition a generation finds itself in is directly related to the environment existing as a result of previous generations that are still there etc etc. And that this somehow flows in a big 60 year cycle. So think of it as if you are at the leading edge of the baby boomers, your life is much different than someone in the middle, or the tail end and so are all the opportunites and stresses and so forth, you could classify these differences as say a "zodiac" sign and predict it.
So now I'm going to argue that perhaps this is really a very old notion, and your K-cycles are a part of what is described by things like zodiacs. Perhaps you could predict your wars and economic turbulence through the study of chinese zodiacs!
In any case, insofar as zodiacs and a marxian filtered interpretation of K-cycles both relate to generational passage and cycles, I'll relate them to each other as well and say it might all be the same thing.
3) Our next cycle just might be robotics, in which case, imagine what that might do to your K-cycle if it really is an expression of the output of labour. Are robots just massive leverage on labour in which case the cycle will be huge? Or do they largely replace it thus mostly flattening out the cycle in the future.
Cheers Ciao, and I hope I gave you something interesting to think about, even if it's all nonsense!~
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