The Return of the Bull?

[BadThad]

Nice double bottom formed, is it time yet? Crossed the 50MA and still well below the 200MA, solid MACD crossover. I'm thinking now is the time to bottom feed, bargains everywhere, especially in my fav....TECH. What do you think?

chart

[Grizzums]

Could be a nice short term bottom (imo). There were/are definitely some interesting looks on the tech side....I love tech too.

Some encouraging signs of (at least) some stabilizing in the housing market with an (surprise) increase in existing home sales numbers and falling prices indicating a positive in what needs to happen overall, from a fundamental standpoint in order to find a bottom, and that is sellers are going have to concede price in order to make the sale.....this is what needs to occur in order to move inventory. Mortgage rates (30 fixed) are now @ 3.62 according to bank rate - http://bankrate.com/

I wouldn't get too excited over these numbers (yet)....although those mortgage rates are getting fairly attractive... We still need to see this occur in the new homes numbers. Prices are still going to need to come down substantially more in many parts of the country and this will lead to less consumption which will remain a drag on the economy.

Even for those of us that are in "Middle America" and are doing fine in our homes, we will (are) seeing some of that "vapor wealth" in our own equity shrink that (imo) will lead to more "holding off" on spending where we don't not need to. Of course, I think this is a good thing (individually and longer term health) for the economy but its not really a good thing for an economy like ours that is dependent upon increased debt (in the shorter term). I also believe that the jobs numbers are going to disappoint.

Some decent plays out there but overall nothing has convinced me of a longer term market bottom....but who can really call the bottoms anyway...lol.

[Ciao]

IMO we are not there yet…. But there would be some more very good days, like today… (but let see if it close like that )
This type of market I call it “the drunkman’s walk” (one step forward and two backward)

However for those who trade long at this prices IMO could start accumulating…. but might be a possibility to buy it/them cheaper….. just my opinion DYODD

If you follow the banks/finance stocks on short + scalp there is money to be made….

[BadThad]

OK, I have to disagree, we're at the bottom now IMO. Based on what I've been seeing in my portfolio and watchlists, this thing is leveling out. Cash seems to be starting to trickle back to stocks. Of course we're still going to see some swings with the abundant paranoia, but it's sure looks to be leveling out to me.

[BadThad]

More optimism:

ANNANDALE, Va. (MarketWatch) -- Richard Band is not someone who makes outlandish predictions just to get headlines.
So I sat up and took notice earlier this week when he wrote to subscribers of his Profitable Investing newsletter that the stock market was ready to "rocket higher" in an "uptrend that could carry the blue chip indexes to all-time highs by late 2008 or early 2009. Dow 16,000 here we come!"
The Hulbert Financial Digest (HFD) has been tracking Band's newsletter since the beginning of 1991. Over the subsequent 17 years, his recommended portfolio has been 35% less volatile than the overall stock market, as measured by relative volatilities. To use a baseball analogy, this shows that Band is more inclined to try to get a base hit than he is to attempt to belt a home run.
Band's conservative approach is crucial to properly interpreting his newsletter's performance. According to the HFD, the newsletter's model portfolios on average have produced an 8.6% annualized return since the beginning of 1991, in contrast to 10.9% annualized for the Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 index (97199001:Dow Jones Wilshire 5000 Composite Index
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Last: 13,363.84-154.45-1.14%

5:00pm 03/27/2008

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97199001 13,363.84, -154.45, -1.1%) . But with only two thirds as much risk, we should expect some below-market return.
It turns out that, upon risk-adjusting his newsletter's performance, it equals that of the market itself. That's good enough to place it in the upper echelon of newsletters over this period, and another reason to give weight to his forecast.
Technical factors appear to have led Band to make such a bold prediction, which amounts to a 33% return for the overall market over the next 12 months.
The first has to do with the stock market's internal characteristics when it hit a low earlier this month. Band argues that that low possessed "many striking technical resemblances to the great bear market bottoms of the past."
To be sure, Band wrote that on Tuesday night, and since then the Dow Jones Industrial Average ($INDU:Dow Jones Industrial Average
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Last: 12,302.46-120.40-0.97%

4:07pm 03/27/2008

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$INDU 12,302.46, -120.40, -1.0%) has dropped 230 points.
But Band says he is not particularly worried. On Thursday night, he told subscribers not to let "Mr. Market wear you out!"
Band continued: "We're in a critical stage for stocks right now, what technical analysts call the 'right shoulder' of a head-and-shoulders bottom. The left shoulder formed on March 10, when the Standard & Poor's 500 index (SPX:S&P 500 Index
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Last: 1,325.76-15.37-1.15%

5:00pm 03/27/2008

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SPX 1,325.76, -15.37, -1.1%) touched its closing low for the year (so far) at 1273.37. The upside-down head came on March 17, when the index broke to a new low intraday but finished at 1276.60, slightly above the March 10 close. Now we're sliding down again to complete the right shoulder of the pattern. If all goes well, the S&P should remain comfortably above the two previous closing lows. Then we can rocket higher in April."
Band adds that when the right shoulder of a head-and-shoulders bottom is forming, "the biggest temptation for investors is to throw up their hands and say, 'This market will never go up. It's doomed.' Don't make that mistake. A very powerful and durable rally is in the works. But it may need another couple of days to lift off. Hold the fort and keep the faith!"
Band is recommending several exchange-traded funds and one open-end mutual fund for subscribers who want to increase their equity exposure: The iShares Russell 1000 Growth Fund (IWF:iShares:Russ 1000 Gr
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Last: 54.89-0.39-0.71%

[Pablo]

What is with the Tuesday rallies????

[Skydaemon]

Originally Posted by Pablo

What is with the Tuesday rallies????

Chalk this one up to april fools day.

[BadThad]

The bull never left!

[Skydaemon]

You know. I see here watching the dow bounce off 12,900 a few times this week thinking: We're only down 1k from our peak in october, except all the business models of the banks, airlines, transportation companies etc are all broken for the long term and their dividends right along with them. Housing, disposable income (eaten by higher food and gas), and tighter credit across the board. All that and I'm supposed to believe the market should only be 9% lower? It's like the market thinks the whole deal was just a summer pullback.

Something smells like bull droppings.

Thoughts?

[Skydaemon]

token bull vid