NFP Fridays

[ForexWolf]

NFP report is going to be a very big one for the markets for the future of the USDollar... Keep in mind--a lot of the moves today and yesterday in the currency markets--could be market factoring in their speculation for the NFP numbers. The ADP if I recall had only 6k jobs in their report the other day--but the ADP is often not accurate to the NFP...so another negative number is very possible for the NFP. If this is factored in pricing right now--and it probably is, if the number is close to estimate then you could see little movement...only a surprise number far from the forecast will cause a big fast spike move...

For those readers who are feeling dangerous and want to play it I have this advice--DON'T. Its rare that I trade during NFP friday...its not worth it most times. But...if you do wanna try it (everyone does try it once or twice til they get burned--its the biggest USD report of the month) you have to be very careful. Use a Stoploss--set your entry and stop and exit target orders about 15minutes BEFORE the report comes out--many brokers get bogged down during heavy news times and orders can get denied at a critical time if its not already entered..

While again I do not suggest folks play the release--IF you happen to get on the right side of a move when the report is released--with the NFP then you want to take the pips within the first 30seconds to minute from the report announcement--do NOT hold it if it swings your way nicely--set a TP exit point and stick to it and get out--winners quickly turn to losers for those who hold too long... More often it will swing back in a whipsaw after the news on the initial spike beforer settling on a direction... So if you make 30-50 pips or so 'instantly'--take it and run...do NOT hold out for more or get greedy. If you happen to be on the wrong side and do not get stopped out immediately--wait a few minutes or hold til you have your stop hit or it swings in your favor...odds are that it will swing around in your favor in a couple minutes time on the whipsaw should it occur. Sadly--this is a high risk day for potential swings..so you want wide stops--75 pips..sometimes 100...but no more at least for my tastes--and don't go crazy with any more than a single or small lot size.. you MUST have a stoploss..if anyone trades without one on NFP friday, you're an idiot...

If you want to wait until after the number is done to trade--give it until the first 15min candle closes, and then look for an entry....and unless the candle closes with a flat bottom and no wick on the bottom--look for retraces of that first 15min candle to occur... But look for trades after the first 5-15 minutes..I prefer 15minutes and small targets of 20-40 pips...

The BEST advice tho--don't trade on Friday--many traders give back their week of pips earned on fridays...why would you want to do that? Make it part of your discipline--to sit back and watch and not trade. Just let the explosion/implosion or "silence" occur with the release, let the dust settle, watch the candles and see if you can make any sense of it for the number.. Look at the analyst reports, interviews on TV, and read the opinions of the NFP and the numbers from the Forex news sites for their opinions...try and understand the 'bigger picture' of what it means--and what the market is reacting to...and what the market folks believe is next etc...and then look to plan your trades and pairs you want to look at for Sunday open. There are much better trading days in the month besides NFP Friday...

Good luck..
FXW

[Ciao]

FXW thanks for your advice and interesting post...

most likely you already know it...... but here are the result....

[BRIEFING.COM] On Friday, the stock market closed out a strong week on a dull note, ending the day near the unchanged mark. However, the market showed some resilience by not posting a decline, considering employers cut jobs for the third straight month.

Nonfarm payrolls fell 80,000, which was worse than the 50,000 decline economists expected. This marks the largest decline since 2003. In addition, January’s reading was revised lower to -76,000 from -23,000, and February’s reading was revised lower to -76,000 from -63,000.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate rebounded to 5.1% from 4.8%. Economists expected a rate of 5.0%.

These numbers are not good, however, the numbers do not necessarily fit the recession label. Unemployment and the decline in payrolls have yet to come close to the early 2000s recession level, which saw unemployment top 6.3% and payrolls fall as much as 325,000.

have a nice w/e...