MESA- Mesa Air Group, Inc. (NASDAQ Stock)

[Jackson Vile]

I am looking at this stock right now, and it reminds me of GLIF.

GLIF was my first big run that I spotted my self I caught it (on paper) right before the fast line crossed the slow when it was in the over sold position.

Now I am looking at MESA and thinking, that looks really really simular, perhaps the pop won't be as large, but I am thinking a good run is in there.

I would like other people opinions, thank you

[aoles]

nice find jackson, indicators have turned around and it looks like it found bottom and now ready to move.

[Skydaemon]

It could work out, but this company has a lot of problems.

Namely:
a) delta wants to terminate it's contract, which would cost it $240 million a year in revenue (of it's 1.2 billion total).
b) it appears to be ready to do major dilution, $37.6 million of new shares, at .55 per share that would mean another 68.7 million shares (if the share price the buyer gets is lower, which is probable, then there would be even more shares. That would increase the O/S from 26.9 million shares to 95.6 million shares and dilute all existing shares to 28% of their original value.
c) it's also involved in various lawsuits

I'd estimate the fair value of this company at something like $2.37 * .28 * .83 = $0.55 per share. Conveniently equal to the current share price. The 28% is dilution effects, the 83% is the drop in revenue from 1.2 billion to 1 billion, the $2.37 is the share price roughly before the problems above were announced.

If this does bounce I'd run very quickly with profit, and personally I avoid plays like this one just because I don't like them when the drop is fully justified.

[Buku]

Good point SKY, everyone needs to be very careful with this stock. I work in the industry and know MESA fairly well. This company is VERY close to failure. That loss from DELTA accounts for like 20% or their operation. The CEO is getting ready to dilute the P*ss out of it like SKY said to the tune of about $37M. I dont expect to ever see it close to a dollar again. In fact soon they will be getting a delisting notice from the NASDAQ, once that happens, we all know where its headed. It will be listed to the OTCBB and no real investors with pockets deep enough to save the company will touch it. They are losing money hand over fist over in Hawaii and just lost a lawsuit from HAWAIIAN Airlines for like $90m and will be losing another one to ALOHA for about the same amount if my memory serves me correctly. They both were being filed for the same reason and the same judge is hearing the ALOHA case as heard the HAWAIIAN case.

[Jackson Vile]

Doing well so far, if you played this one today went up 25%.

If you want to avoid the BS just buy every morning is looks safe and sell right after gains.

I play my paper trades realy tight, one the spread starts to tighten or the buy slows I just out right sale and don't look back "bye bye" just like Gary says LOL

But we will see what will happen, so far I am 3 for 3 LOL

[greencat]

Nice Jackson V. Beautiful play

[Skydaemon]

Hmm appears to be due to a weird settlement which came out today.

The court gave a judgement of $90 mill to hawaiian from mesa, mesa started an appeal. So for some weird reason Hawaiian decided to settle post judgement for only 52.5 million (instead of the $90 million it was owed) in order to get mesa to withdraw the appeal?

Bizarre, as you don't see too many settlements after the court case is done but seems to be what happened, and mesa is $37.5 million better off.

[Jackson Vile]

Wow too bad this is on paper again LOL.

Wish I had some free money for this one, I have been stocking it for a little while. 37.88%

And it sure looks strong at the ending of today, I can't wait until I have more confidence to actually play.

I just keep telling myself that I don't have what it takes LOL


Gary I could not have done it with out your CD, so thank you again. I just want to learn the rest of your secrets.

At the end of some I am lining up a person that is going to teach me how to trade Forex for a good week or so. Hopefully that will not fall through, he does it full time for 6 years now.

[Jackson Vile]

Originally Posted by Skydaemon

Hmm appears to be due to a weird settlement which came out today.

The court gave a judgement of $90 mill to hawaiian from mesa, mesa started an appeal. So for some weird reason Hawaiian decided to settle post judgement for only 52.5 million (instead of the $90 million it was owed) in order to get mesa to withdraw the appeal?

Bizarre, as you don't see too many settlements after the court case is done but seems to be what happened, and mesa is $37.5 million better off.

That is why ou listen to what the charts says, if it says buy you buy, if it says sale you sale.

With fundamentals you just get burned time and time again from my experience

[Jackson Vile]

Wow ended even stronger 45.45%