$USD/$CAD Forex US Dollar vs Canada Dollar

[DannyBly]

Looking at USD/CAD, we can see a major bullish SMA crossover on the daily (50 SMA crossing 200 SMA). Price is trading within a major symmetrical triangle, and the minor symmetrical triangle within it provides near resistance to the upside. Momentum reflected in RSI remains on the gate, modestly bullish (around 50 and flatish) Further selling and confirmation of a top in crude will put further pressure on the CAD and bolster the case for a major bullish trend change in USD/CAD.



Analysis By TradersLog.com

[greencat]

1,1871. USD CAD is in a consolidation after the last bullish movement. Bollinger bands are flat. Bollinger bands are tightened. Forex Trend 1H, 4H, daily is in a bullish configuration. The price should find a resistance below 1,1960 (89 pips). The consolidation should continue. If the resistance is broken then the target will be 1,2100 (229 pips). The risk to reward ratio is too high to take a position at the moment.

Resistances

1,1960 - 1,2100

Supports

1,1800 - 1,1680

Forex Chart USD/CAD Support and resistance.

[greencat]

Forex Update USD vs CAD

My chart shows a possible small Head and Shoulders Pattern but I dont think it will hold. The CAD may be making a reversal off the triple bottom. I expect to see the CAD make a nice move up. Breaks the trendline and I believe the reversal will occur.

USD/CAD Chart

[greencat]

USD/CAD: Tech Teams Starting To Growl] New York, January 22nd.

Canadian bank tech teams are starting to growl. The latest contribution, one of the Big Five, says "this morning"s rejection levels above 1.27 (bear reversal signal on the hourly chart confirmed) suggest a near-term setback for USD/CAD at least". They do note however that the general strength of the USD against the other majors may prevent a wholesale sell off, they particularly note the following levels "continued support in the low 1.25s, with 1.2536 (overnight and this morning"s low) defining key support from here" whilst they say a break below could test "mid/upper 1.23s" they favour a buy dips approach whilst 1.2536 remains inviolate. They also note "a retest of the 1.29 zone still achievable after the break out of the midmonth consolidation above the 1.2490 area".

To us, the weekly study still looks constructive for further topside; the bounce off 1.2395, the 1x10 Gann line off the 1.1880 Feb "07 high is very bullish and suggests a test of the 2x10 line at 1.2905. Furthermore the break of the down-sloping long term Gann line off the 1.6190, 2002 all time high which comes in at 1.2555 for the fourth time suggest that this should also afford some support and is perhaps breaking down as a resistance guide line. Overbought 11- wk Bollingers at 1.2870 (2.0 std devs) and above at 1.3125 (3.0) are the levels that start to look like a fade.


On the dailies overbought Bollingers at 1.2725 (5-d) 1.2770 (20-d) and 1.2880 (10-d) are spread out and as such do not provide strong resistance but should retard momentum. The overbought 55-day at 1.2820, 50 pips below its 11-wk equivalent suggest forays into 1.2800/1.3000 are overdone but can remain that way in a strong trend, much would depend upon USD strength vs majors, oil price trends, gold and equities to allow that condition to continue. Overbought hourly Bollingers at 1.2700/35 suggest current price action is tired, and hint toward re-setting longs in the 1.2470/00 area. Our tech boys are flat

[greencat]

USD/CAD:

Loonie Still Rocking & Rolling, Buck Bites Back] New York, January 23rd. After yesterday"s sharp sell off in USD/CAD, and the tech players all jumping on the short side, it is interesting to see USD/CAD as bid as it is in New York this morning. Having hit 1.2517 lows, and breaking below what was considered by Canadian bank tech teams as crucial support at 1.2536, USD/CAD ripped up to 1.2650 highs again in early London trading.

There was a sell off in gold futures over night, which seems to have triggered some of the USD buying, the March contract dropped $5 from the NY closing levels to $852.50, which was tested twice but held, and set up a sharp rally that took it to $880.00. The upsurge seemed to sate USD/CAD demand, oil having remained sidelined in a $41.93/$43.60 sideways chop through the overnight session, and opening NYMEX at $43.10, and on the slide, $42.32 last. CAD/JPY selling seemed to give the book that last oomph, hitting a 69.67 low, having traded a big fig higher just a short while ago.

NY traders seem a little wary this morning, there seemed little reason for the run up other than a short squeeze, and the unrequited break of key support looks even more important this morning. Oil settlement day flows are expected to provide topside supply today through Monday, but traders wonder just how much of this has been left unhedged after the two opportunities to dump them out with a 1.2700 handle this week. The 24-hr M/A is at 1.2578, oversold hourly Bollingers 1.2465/05; overbought 1.2650/90.

There seemed to be some momentum buying on the dip to the 24-hr M/A on the last test, traders are looking to range trade the normal distribution channel, 1.2540/1.2615 until they get a sniff of flow direction. USD/CAD 1.2600/05 last.

[greencat]

Forex Chart Update USD/CAD

[greencat]

Forex chart update Cad

Daily chart so go to lower time frames for best entry

Triangle pattern.

[greencat]

Cad having problems with th last high. Not in yet but dropping down time frames looking for a short

[greencat]

USD/CAD looking for new Short 1.0940 - 1.0953. Possible double bottom but I think it will take it out eventually.

[MDunleavy]

This week, US data and the European bank stress test results stole most of the headlines. Canada has quietly seen their currency strengthen towards the lower part of its' recent range. Tuesday saw an increase of 25 basis points on their overnight rate. Canadian Retail Sales and Consumer Price Index printed below expectations, but the currency benefited from the stabilization of commodities. While the outlook for future rate hikes is dismal, the Canadian economy is significantly in a better position than the US.Written by FX Solutions.USDCAD strength can continue towards 1.02.

"P&F USDCAD30 Box Size 40X3 or(1.15%) HI/LO
Data 1.0744 - 1.0138 ~ 2 Month ~ 58.98 Day
Database 2048 records 1.03572 (Last Close)
2010-05-25 23~00
2010-07-23 22~30 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

1.0760|~4O|||+_______________________________|-0.15%|6.14%
1.0720|~8O|||x_o_____________________________|0.22 %|5.74%
1.0680|~12O||x_o_+_______________+___________|0.6% |5.35%
1.0640|~16O||__o___+_____x_______x_+_________|0.97 %|4.95%
1.0600|~2OO||__o_____+___x_o_____x_o_+_______|1.34 %|4.56%
1.0560|~24O||__o_x___x_+_x_o_____x_o_x_+_____|1.71 %|4.16%
1.0520|~28O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_+___|2.08 %|3.77%
1.0480|~32O||__o_x_o_x_o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x_+_|2.46 %|3.37%
1.0440|~36O||__o___o___o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_x_o_|2.83 %|2.98%
1.0400|~4OO||__________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|3.2% |2.58%
1.0360|~44O||__________o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o___o_|3.57 %|2.19%
1.0320|~48O||______________o_x_o___o_x_____V_|3.95 %|1.8%
1.0280|~52O||______________o_x_____o_______V_|4.32 %|1.4%
1.0240|~56O||______________o_x___+_________V_4.69% |1.01%
1.0200|~6OO||______________o_x_+___________V_5.06% |0.61%
1.0160|~64O||______________o_+_____________V_5.44% |0.22%
1.0120|~68O||______________+_________________|5.81 %|-0.18%
Column|~72O||2_8_3_3_3_5_7_1_7_3_8_9_7_5_3_3_|
Count||~76O||______________2_________________|


BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.