Market Bounce Back (Like last week 9/29-9/30) - Stock Market Forum, Penny Stocks, FOREX, NASDAQ, AMEX, NYSE, Live Chat

**Volatile22** · #1 10-06-2008, 03:00 PM

Hey guys,

Just figured I would start a discussion based on what we saw the market do last week, down 750+ on Monday (9/29) then huge gains on Tuesday (9/30).

The reason why I bring up a discussion of last weeks "bounce back" is because we are seeing the same thing this week. 750+ down today.

Do you guys think tomorrow will bring the huge gains we saw last week? Or are we screwed for tomorrow as well. I know nobody has a crystal ball, but what do you THINK will happen tomorrow?

Is it another opportunity for success or one for failure?

DISCUSS:

**BadThad** · #2 10-07-2008, 01:17 PM

Down, down, down.....LOL

I'm on the sidelines with mostly cash if that tells you anything about what I think.

TNTrader · #3 10-07-2008, 01:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Volatile22

Hey guys,

Just figured I would start a discussion based on what we saw the market do last week, down 750+ on Monday (9/29) then huge gains on Tuesday (9/30).

The reason why I bring up a discussion of last weeks "bounce back" is because we are seeing the same thing this week. 750+ down today.

Do you guys think tomorrow will bring the huge gains we saw last week? Or are we screwed for tomorrow as well. I know nobody has a crystal ball, but what do you THINK will happen tomorrow?

Is it another opportunity for success or one for failure?

DISCUSS:

This is a fine opportunity to lose one's shirt. A 750+ down day with a 400+ recovery the next is not a good thing. It is a bad sign. There was still well over 300 points lost in a two day swing. This has become the pattern, as people see a big down swing, they think it is time to bargain hunt and smaller players pile in bringing it up a bit but on low volume and narrow breadth. The next day or two the big players sell more and take it even lower.

Wash,rinse,repeat.

The internals suck. Yesterday was a 90% down day, it has improved to about a 60% down day today. But its still early. Volume is just above average so far, if the volume kicks up and its still 60+% down near the close, get outta the way.

Good Luck

**BadThad** · #4 10-07-2008, 02:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNTrader

This is a fine opportunity to lose one's shirt. A 750+ down day with a 400+ recovery the next is not a good thing. It is a bad sign. There was still well over 300 points lost in a two day swing. This has become the pattern, as people see a big down swing, they think it is time to bargain hunt and smaller players pile in bringing it up a bit but on low volume and narrow breadth. The next day or two the big players sell more and take it even lower.

Wash,rinse,repeat.

The internals suck. Yesterday was a 90% down day, it has improved to about a 60% down day today. But its still early. Volume is just above average so far, if the volume kicks up and its still 60+% down near the close, get outta the way.

Good Luck

Indeed.....caution is the word! You don't want all your cash taken by the market or you're going to be a very sad person for years to come.

The only stocks I can recommend buying is some of the bluechips and that's only if you're planning on holding for years, e.g. Intel or MSFT. Other than that, you'd better know exactly what your doing and have your finger on the sell trigger the whole time.

TNTrader · #5 10-07-2008, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadThad

Indeed.....caution is the word! You don't want all your cash taken by the market or you're going to be a very sad person for years to come.

The only stocks I can recommend buying is some of the bluechips and that's only if you're planning on holding for years, e.g. Intel or MSFT. Other than that, you'd better know exactly what your doing and have your finger on the sell trigger the whole time.

Exactly. This bear is eating everything in sight but it cannot gorge forever. Soon enough it will be time to bargain hunt in the discount bin for those with cash to spend. Can anyone say, I'll take Caterpillar for $38? or Burlington Northern for $45ish?

Good Luck

**BadThad** · #6 10-07-2008, 03:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TNTrader

Exactly. This bear is eating everything in sight but it cannot gorge forever. Soon enough it will be time to bargain hunt in the discount bin for those with cash to spend. Can anyone say, I'll take Caterpillar for $38? or Burlington Northern for $45ish?

Good Luck

CAT for $38....I'd be ALL over that! I'm drooling at the prospects, I feel like a shark circling it's prey right now.

My problem is there's SO MANY great deals in the making it's overwhelming! My head is spinning trying to DD all these great stocks.

TN, you should contribute your picks to AUfan's list in the big board forum. I'd like to hear what you think is shaping up to be a hot buy.

**BadThad** · #7 10-07-2008, 04:22 PM

OUCH! 508 pt drop today! Closed at 9447!

Man, I hope we have forum members with money left after this slaughter!

TNTrader · #8 10-07-2008, 05:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BadThad

OUCH! 508 pt drop today! Closed at 9447!

Man, I hope we have forum members with money left after this slaughter!

The telling number for today was the S&P 500 index. This is the broadest based of the major indexes and it fell in tandem with the somewhat more focused Nasdaq and the DJIA. All three closed at or near their lows, all three fell about the same percentage. The S&P closed below the 1000 mark and has no real base until about 690. The way this went today shows that there is no faith in the market or any individual sector.

The DJIA had a last minute dump of nearly 65 million shares, close to 20% of the entire sessions volume in the last minutes. Somebody did not want to hold overnight in a big and expensive way.

The repetitious volume spikes on the NASDAQ today show some serious players were scaling out throughout the day. With this much volume in the spikes it has to have been either the investment banks or mutual funds exiting.

All in all, one helluva bloody day.

Good Luck

**BadThad** · #9 10-07-2008, 08:07 PM

Thanks for the observations TN! I greatly appreciate your technical insight into this market. Please keep it coming!

**Grizzums** · #10 10-08-2008, 10:17 AM

Coordinated cut now eh?

Man, with the recent actions of the Fed, it appears that madman Roubini is finally having some influence.

I wouldn't get too excited about this cut. A. It smells like central banker panic (never a god thing). B. We have been at an effective rate of one and a half for the last couple weeks as Bernanke had lost hold of monetary policy. Expect further easing on our spiral down to zero.