As The Dollar Inches Into Resistance, Expect A Commodity And Market Bounce - Stock Market Forum, Penny Stocks, FOREX, NASDAQ, AMEX, NYSE, Live Chat

inthemoneystocks · #1 01-29-2010, 10:58 AM

The markets have tumbled over the last two weeks giving a sour start to 2010. Many point to the fall as being a result of President Obama's tough talk on bank regulation, not allowing them to take risks that have been the key driver of profits. The Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (NYSE:XLF) has tumbled in the last two weeks over 7%. Stocks like Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) has tumbled from its the highs on January 7th, 2010 of $179.75 to recent lows of $148.27. While many blame earnings and the Presidents tough talk against Wall Street there is another culprit.

It seems that the real key to the drop on Wall Street is none other than the U.S. Dollar. The dollar has spiked higher over the last few months killing commodity prices. Price of oil had dropped dramatically along with gold. Stocks like Southern Copper Corporation (USA) (NYSE:PCU), Steel Dynamics, Inc. (NASDAQ:STLD) had crashed in the last three weeks. These two stocks have fallen 27% and 25% respectively. In addition, the biggest players in the commodity realm have also seen a major price correction. Exxon Mobil Corporation (NYSE:XOM) and Chevron Corporation (NYSE:CVX), each a major component of the DOW have collapsed almost 10%. Being a major part of the DOW, this type of drop has a dramatic effect on the index itself and could be looked as a major portion of the losses in the last two weeks in the markets. The root of the issue all comes back to the dollar.

As the dollar has ripped higher, commodities have fallen. iPath S&P GSCI Crude Oil Total Return (NYSE

IL) has fallen from $27.22 to $23.44. That is a 14% drop in a mere two weeks. The impact on the markets of this type of fall in commodities is earth shattering.

To find the bottom in this market, the point where this market will get a significant bounce, one must turn to the charts of not oil, not gold, not XOM, CVX, GS or the XLF but to the U.S. Dollar. Everything comes back simply to the dollar. PowerShares DB US Dollar Index Bullish (NYSE:UUP) is closing in on a major resistance area and should spell a pullback. As we know, if the dollar pulls back, commodities will bounce. If commodities bounce, commodity stocks like XOM and CVX will bounce. If those stocks bounce, they will have a direct and major impact on the DOW. The markets will surge.

This level on the dollar is the 200 moving average. It is close to hitting. In fact, the UUP (dollar ETF) is only a dime ($0.10) away. With this resistance point looming, expect the dollar to fall back and a bounce to come into the markets any day. This will most likely only be a short term bounce but a solid one. Enjoy the chart below of the dollar ETF, the UUP and the 200 moving average.

RealTick graphics used with permission of Townsend Analytics, Ltd. ©1986-2009 townsend Analytics, Ltd. All Rights Reserved. RealTick is a registered trademark of Townsend Analytics, Ltd

Gareth Soloway
Chief Market Strategist
InTheMoneyStocks.com

MDunleavy · #2 03-25-2010, 08:48 AM

Reminder
==========
The U.S. Dollar Index® is computed using a trade-weighted geometric average of six currencies. The six currencies and their trade weights are: Euro 57.6 % Japan/yen 13.6 % UK/pound 11.9 % Canada/dollar 9.1 % Sweden/krona 4.2 % Switzerland/franc 3.6 %.
==========
Dollar index's strong break of 81.34 resistance confirms that whole medium term rise from 74.19 has resumed and should now be targeting 61.8% projection of 76.60 to 81.34 from 79.51 at 82.43 next. Meanwhile, in case of retreat, dollar index should be contained by 80.55 support and bring rally resumption.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 250X3 or(4.17%) CLOSE
Data 108.69 - 71.36 ~ 93 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 81.85 (Last Close)
2002-06-21 00~00
2010-03-25 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

108.75|~125|______________________________|-0.06%|52.4%
107.50|~25O|_X_X__________________________|1.09%|5 0.64%
106.25|~375|oXoXo_________________________|2.24%|4 8.89%
105.00|~5OO|o_oXo_________________________|3.39%|4 7.14%
103.75|~625|__o_o_________________________|4.55%|4 5.39%
102.50|~75O|____o_________________________|5.7%|43 .64%
101.25|~875|____oX________________________|6.85%|4 1.89%
100.0|~1OOO|____oXo_______________________|8%|40.1 3%
98.75|~1125|____oXoX______________________|9.15%|3 8.38%
97.50|~125O|____o_oXo_____________________|10.3%|3 6.63%
96.25|~1375|______oXo_____________________|11.45%| 34.88%
95.00|~15OO|______oXo_____________________|12.6%|3 3.13%
93.75|~1625|______oXo_____________________|13.75%| 31.38%
92.50|~175O|______oXo_____________________|14.9%|2 9.62%
91.25|~1875|______o_oX_____X______________|16.05%| 27.87%
90.00|~2OOO|________oXo__X_Xo_____________|17.2%|2 6.12%
88.75|~2125|========oXo==XoXo========X====|18.35%| 24.37%
87.50|~225O|________oXo__XoXo______X_Xo___|19.5%|2 2.62%
86.25|~2375|________oXo__Xo_o______XoXoX__|20.65%| 20.87%
85.00|~25OO|________oXoX_X__oX_____XoXoXo_|21.8%|1 9.11%
83.75|~2625|________o_oXoX__oXo____XoXoXo_|22.95%| 17.36%
82.50|~275O|__________oXoX__oXo____XoXo_o_|24.1%|1 5.61%
81.25|~2875|==========oXo===o=o====XoX==oX|25.25%| 13.86%
80.00|~3OOO|__________o_______o__X_XoX__oX|26.4%|1 2.11%
78.75|~3125|__________________o__XoXo___oX|27.55%| 10.36%
77.50|~325O|__________________oX_XoX____oX|28.7%|8 .6%
76.25|~3375|__________________oXoXoX____oX|29.85%| 6.85%
75.00|~35OO|__________________oXoXo_____oX|31%|5.1 %
73.75|~3625|==================o=oX======o=|32.15%| 3.35%
72.50|~375O|____________________oX________|33.3%|1 .6%
71.25|~3875|____________________o_________|34.45%|-0.15%
Column||||||223383861694373483935741785316|
Count|||||||________2______________O____O_|

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

MDunleavy · #3 04-18-2010, 05:10 PM

Commodity were hit hard with crude oil down to close at 83.24 while gold closed at 1136.9. Dollar managed to recover earlier losses against major currencies. While the sharp reversal in dollar pairs and yen crosses worth mentioning, it must be noted that the moves were not enough to confirm reversal in recent decline in the neither currencies yet. For example, the dollar index, which closed the week at 80.77, is still way off recent high of 82.24. Follow through selling in stocks and commodities is needed to push dollar and yen through near term resistance to confirm reversal.

"P&F _DY1440 Box Size1 30X2 or(2.89%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 93 Month ~ 2832 Day
Database 2000 records 80.77 (Last Close)
2002-07-15 00~00
2010-04-16 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group chart"

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

MDunleavy · #4 06-03-2010, 08:28 AM

US Dollar Index (DXY)
The US Dollar Index is retracing to test short-term support at 85 after breaking out of its
trend channel. Failure would signal the end of the rally and a test of the lower trend channel.
Upward breakout remains as likely, however, and would offer a short-term target of 90.00

"P&F _DXY1440 Box Size 120X3 or(4%) HI/LO
Data 109.24 - 70.7 ~ 94 Month ~ 2834 Day
Database 2000 records 86.49 (Last Close)
2002-08-30 00~00
2010-06-03 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

109.2|~12O||__x_+_________________________________ __________|0.04%|54.46%
108.0|~24O||__x_o_+_______________________________ __________|1.14%|52.76%
106.8|~36O||__x_o___+_____________________________ __________|2.23%|51.06%
105.6|~48O||o___o_____+___________________________ __________|3.33%|49.36%
104.4|~6OO||o___o_______+_________________________ __________|4.43%|47.67%
103.2|~72O||____o_________+_______________________ __________|5.53%|45.97%
102.0|~84O||____o_x_________+_____________________ __________|6.63%|44.27%
100.8|~96O||____o_x_o_________+___________________ __________|7.73%|42.57%
99.60|~1O8O|____o_x_o___________+_________________ __________|8.82%|40.88%
98.40|~12OO|____o___o_x___________+_______________ __________|9.92%|39.18%
97.20|~132O|________o_x_o___________+_____________ __________|11.02%|37.48%
96.00|~144O|________o_x_o_____________+___________ __________|12.12%|35.79%
94.80|~156O|________o_x_o_______________+_________ __________|13.22%|34.09%
93.60|~168O|________o_x_o_________________+_______ __________|14.32%|32.39%
92.40|~18OO|________o___o_____________x_____+_____ __________|15.42%|30.69%
91.20|~192O|____________o_x___________x_o_____+___ __________|16.51%|29%
90.00|~2O4O|____________o_x_o_____x___x_o_______+_ __________|17.61%|27.3%
88.80|~216O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_________ x_________|18.71%|25.6%
87.60|~228O|____________o_x_o_____x_o_x_o_x___x___ x_o_____+_|19.81%|23.9%
86.40|~24OO|____________o_x_o_____x_o___o_x_o_x_o_ x_o_x___x_|20.91%|22.21%
85.20|~252O|____________o___o_x___x___+_o_x_o_x_o_ x_o_x_o_x_|22.01%|20.51%
84.00|~264O|________________o_x_o_x_+___o_x_o___o_ x_o_x_o_x_|23.11%|18.81%
82.80|~276O|________________o_x_o_x_____o_x_____o_ x_o___o_x_|24.2%|17.11%
81.60|~288O|________________o_x_o_______o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|25.3%|15.42%
80.40|~3OOO|________________o_+_________o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|26.4%|13.72%
79.20|~312O|________________+___________o_x_____o_ x_____o_x_|27.5%|12.02%
78.00|~324O|____________________________o_x_____o_ ____+_o_x_|28.6%|10.33%
76.80|~336O|____________________________o_x_______ __+___o_x_|29.7%|8.63%
75.60|~348O|____________________________o_x_______ +_____o_x_|30.79%|6.93%
74.40|~36OO|____________________________o_x_____+_ ______o_+_|31.89%|5.23%
73.20|~372O|____________________________o_x___+___ ______+___|32.99%|3.54%
72.00|~384O|____________________________o_x_+_____ __________|34.09%|1.84%
70.80|~396O|____________________________o_+_______ __________|35.19%|0.14%
69.60|~4O8O|____________________________+_________ __________|36.29%|-1.56%
Column||||||2_3_9_3_8_5_1_5_9_4_3_7_3_5_1_1_3_3_8_ 9_5_3_1_1_|
Count|||||||____________1_______________8_4_______ ______O_O_|

BJF-Trading-Group_Excel_Chart

MDunleavy · #5 07-12-2010, 09:19 AM

US Dollar Index
The US Dollar Index is undergoing a correction. Breakout below the rising trendline would warn that the primary up-trend is weakening — as would a Twiggs Momentum peak below the zero line. Recovery above the descending trendline, however, would suggest another test of 89.[incrediblecharts.com]
But I think so.See figure.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size1 50X3 or(4.71%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 210 Month ~ 6377 Day
Database 912 records 84.34 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-07-11 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

121.50|~15O|____________________________________+_ __________________________|-0.82%|71.85%
120.00|~3OO|________________________________x___x_ +_________________________|0.42%|69.73%
118.50|~45O|____________________________x___x_o_x_ o_+_______________________|1.67%|67.61%
117.00|~6OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o___+_____________________|2.91%|65.49%
115.50|~75O|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o_____+___________________|4.16%|63.37%
114.00|~9OO|____________________________x_o_x_o_x_ o_______+_________________|5.4%|61.24%
112.5|~1O5O|____________________________x_o_x_o___ o_________+_______________|6.65%|59.12%
111.0|~12OO|________________________x___x_o_x_____ o___________+_____________|7.89%|57%
109.5|~135O|________________________x_o_x_o_______ o_____________+___________|9.14%|54.88%
108.0|~15OO|________________________x_o_x_________ o_______________+_________|10.38%|52.76%
106.5|~165O|________________________x_o___________ o_________________+_______|11.63%|50.64%
105.0|~18OO|________________________x_____________ o___________________+_____|12.87%|48.51%
103.5|~195O|____________________x___x_____________ o_____________________+___|14.12%|46.39%
102.0|~21OO|________________x___x_o_x_____________ o_______________________+_|15.36%|44.27%
100.5|~225O|____________x___x_o_x_o_x_____________ o_________________________|16.6%|42.15%
99.00|~24OO|____________x_o_x_o_x_o_x___________+_ o_x_______________________|17.85%|40.03%
97.50|~255O|____________x_o_x_o_x_o___________+___ o_x_o_____________________|19.09%|37.91%
96.00|~27OO|____x_______x_o___o_x___________+_____ o_x_o_____________________|20.34%|35.79%
94.50|~285O|x___x_o_____x_____o_x_________+_______ o_x_o_____________________|21.58%|33.66%
93.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_____x_____o_________+_________ o___o_____________________|22.83%|31.54%
91.50|~315O|__o_x_o_____x_____________+___________ ____o_x___x_______________|24.07%|29.42%
90.00|~33OO|__o_x_o_x___x___________+_____________ ____o_x_o_x_o_____________|25.32%|27.3%
88.50|~345O|__o___o_x_o_x_________+_______________ ____o_x_o_x_o_____x___x___|26.56%|25.18%
87.00|~36OO|______o_x_o_x_______+_________________ ____o_x_o_x_o_x___x_o_x_o_|27.81%|23.06%
85.50|~375O|______o___o_x_____+___________________ ____o___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.05%|20.93%
84.00|~39OO|__________o_x___+_____________________ ________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.50|~4O5O|__________o_x_+_______________________ ________o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x___|31.54%|16.69%
81.00|~42OO|__________o_+_________________________ ________o___o_x_o_x_o_x___|32.79%|14.57%
79.50|~435O|__________+___________________________ ____________o_x_o_x_o_x___|34.03%|12.45%
78.00|~45OO|______________________________________ ____________o_x_o___o_x___|35.28%|10.33%
76.50|~465O|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____o_x_+_|36.52%|8.2%
75.00|~48OO|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____o_+___|37.76%|6.08%
73.50|~495O|______________________________________ ____________o_x_____+_____|39.01%|3.96%
72.00|~51OO|______________________________________ ____________o_____________|40.25%|1.84%
70.50|~525O|______________________________________ __________________________|41.5%|-0.28%
Column||||||2_4_5_7_3_6_1_3_4_6_7_4_9_3_8_6_7_5_5_ 1_4_9_4_7_7_1_1_6_7_9_9_3_|
Count|||||||____________3_________________________ 8___________3_O___________|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

MDunleavy · #6 08-15-2010, 11:19 AM

Dollar index has best week in nearly 2 years.
Aug 13 (Reuters) - The dollar on Friday marked its best week against a basket of major
currencies in nearly two years, as worries about the strength of the global economy fed short-
covering and safe-haven demand for the greenback.

The dollar index .DXY, which measures the greenback against six major currencies, rose 3.2
percent this week to 82.943. That was the biggest weekly gain since it rose nearly 5 percent in
the week ended Oct. 26, 2008.

Worries that a slower U.S. economy could cause headwinds for global growth led investors to
sell risky assets and buy dollars as a safe-haven play, traders said

The US Dollar Index rallied off support at 80. Penetration of the descending trendline
indicates that the down-trend is weakening.

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size20X3 or(6.28%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 211 Month ~ 6405 Day
Database 916 records 82.92 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-08-08 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

120.0|~2OO||__________________o_x_+_______________ ______|0.42%|69.73%
118.0|~4OO||____________x___x_o_x_o_+_____________ ______|2.08%|66.9%
116.0|~6OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o___+___________ ______|3.74%|64.07%
114.0|~8OO||____________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_________ ______|5.4%|61.24%
112.0|~1OOO|____________x_o_x_o___o_______+_______ ______|7.06%|58.42%
110.0|~12OO|____________x_o_______o_________+_____ ______|8.72%|55.59%
108.0|~14OO|____________x_________o___________+___ ______|10.38%|52.76%
106.0|~16OO|____________x_________o_____________+_ ______|12.04%|49.93%
104.0|~18OO|________x___x_________o_______________ +_____|13.7%|47.1%
102.0|~2OOO|____x___x_o_x_________o_______________ __+___|15.36%|44.27%
100.0|~22OO|____x_o_x_o_x_________o_______________ ____+_|17.02%|41.44%
98.00|~24OO|____x_o_x_o_________+_o_x_____________ ______|18.68%|38.61%
96.00|~26OO|x___x_o_x_________+___o_x_o___________ ______|20.34%|35.79%
94.00|~28OO|x_o_x_o_x_______+_____o_x_o___________ ______|22%|32.96%
92.00|~3OOO|x_o_x_o_______+_______o___o_x_________ ______|23.66%|30.13%
90.00|~32OO|x_o_x_______+_____________o_x_o_______ ______|25.32%|27.3%
88.00|~34OO|__o_x_____+_______________o_x_o_x___x_ __x___|26.98%|24.47%
86.00|~36OO|__o_x___+_________________o_x_o_x_o_x_ o_x_o_|28.64%|21.64%
84.00|~38OO|__o_x_+___________________o_x_o_x_o_x_ o_x_o_|30.3%|18.81%
82.00|~4OOO|__o_+_____________________o___o_x_o_x_ o_x_o_|31.96%|15.98%
80.00|~42OO|__+___________________________o_x_o_x_ o_x___|33.62%|13.15%
78.00|~44OO|______________________________o_x_o___ o_x_+_|35.28%|10.33%
76.00|~46OO|______________________________o_x___+_ o_+___|36.93%|7.5%
74.00|~48OO|______________________________o_x_+___ +_____|38.59%|4.67%
72.00|~5OOO|______________________________o_+_____ ______|40.25%|1.84%
70.00|~52OO|______________________________+_______ ______|41.91%|-0.99%
Column||||||4_7_1_5_6_3_1_4_4_5_4_1_3_8_5_1_8_5_5_ 6_6_3_|
Count|||||||____O_______O_________4_______O_______ ______|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.

MDunleavy · #7 11-22-2010, 03:09 AM

"P&F _DXY10080 Box Size 170X3 or(5.33%) HI/LO
Data 120.51 - 70.7 ~ 221.19 Month ~ 6503 Day
Database 930 records 78.48 (Last Close)
1993-01-24 00~00
2010-11-14 00~00 (GMT+01:00) Paris
BJF Trading Group MDunleavy chart"

120.7|~17O||________________________+___+_________ __________________|-0.16%|70.72%
119.0|~34O||____________________+___x_o_x_+_______ __________________|1.25%|68.32%
117.3|~51O||____________________x_+_x_o_x_o_+_____ __________________|2.66%|65.91%
115.6|~68O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o___+___ __________________|4.07%|63.51%
113.9|~85O||____________________x_o_x_o_x_o_____+_ __________________|5.49%|61.1%
112.2|~1O2O|____________________x_o_x_o___o_______ +_________________|6.9%|58.7%
110.5|~119O|____________________x_o_x_____o_______ __+_______________|8.31%|56.29%
108.8|~136O|____________________x_o_______o_______ ____+_____________|9.72%|53.89%
107.1|~153O|____________________x_________o_______ ______+___________|11.13%|51.49%
105.4|~17OO|________________+___x_________o_______ ________+_________|12.54%|49.08%
103.7|~187O|____________+___x_+_x_________o_______ __________+_______|13.95%|46.68%
102.0|~2O4O|________+___x_+_x_o_x_________o_______ ____________+_____|15.36%|44.27%
100.3|~221O|________x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________o_______ ______________+___|16.77%|41.87%
98.60|~238O|____+___x_o_x_o_x_o_________+_o_x_____ ________________+_|18.18%|39.46%
96.90|~255O|____x_+_x_o_x_o_x_________+___o_x_o___ __________________|19.59%|37.06%
95.20|~272O|+___x_o_x_o___o_x_______+_____o_x_o___ __________________|21%|34.65%
93.50|~289O|x_+_x_o_x_____o_______+_______o_+_o___ __________________|22.41%|32.25%
91.80|~3O6O|__o_x_o_x___________+_________+___o_x_ __x_______________|23.82%|29.84%
90.10|~323O|__o_x_o_x_________+_______________o_x_ o_x_o_____________|25.23%|27.44%
88.40|~34OO|__o_+_o_x_______+_________________o_x_ o_x_o_x___x___x___|26.65%|25.04%
86.70|~357O|__+___o_x_____+___________________o_x_ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|28.06%|22.63%
85.00|~374O|______o_x___+_____________________o_+_ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|29.47%|20.23%
83.30|~391O|______o_x_+_______________________+___ o_x_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|30.88%|17.82%
81.60|~4O8O|______o_+_____________________________ o_+_o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|32.29%|15.42%
79.90|~425O|______+_______________________________ +___o_x_o_x_o_x_o_|33.7%|13.01%
78.20|~442O|====================================== ====o=x=o===o=x=o=X35.11%|10.61%
76.50|~459O|______________________________________ ____o_x_____o_x_o_|36.52%|8.2%
74.80|~476O|______________________________________ ____o_x___+_o_+___|37.93%|5.8%
73.10|~493O|______________________________________ ____o_x_+___+_____|39.34%|3.39%
71.40|~51OO|______________________________________ ____o_+___________|40.75%|0.99%
69.70|~527O|______________________________________ ____+_____________|42.16%|-1.41%
Column||||||1_3_5_9_1_3_4_5_6_3_1_5_6_5_4_1_3_8_4_ 6_6_1_1_6_6_8_8_7_|
Count|||||||________1___________1_________5_______ ____2_O___________|

BJF Trading Group. Excel Chart. Full size.