a watch list into the Fall

[ForexWolf]

Howdy...
FOMC minutes due out this week--very significant...plus several EUR and USD reports--including US Existing Home Sales which may fall slightly from expectations. Watch the news--its the end of the month--hard to trade and often volitile.

Many of the currencies have come off their consolidations from the previous weeks.."noise" seems to have died down..now some significant levels are being touched or have been broken... I smell trade opportunities. Have to see what this week brings us for validations of moves--many stock and investment folks are NOT on holiday this last week of summer because of recent volitility in the markets... I expect things to simmer down a bit and begin to take shape for the Fall and this could present us some signifcant opportunities for trades with some nice gains.. Based on the DAILY charts---here is what I notice:

GBP/USD has broken after open today a significant 2.0150 resistance level.. This is important that it stays strong over this for it to continue up--a retrace below could put this pair off for another week. This pair IMO seems to be leading the way in showing signs of what we may see in coming weeks. Daily and hourly charts look to be setting up for a major continuation move... Whether it shall be a return consolidation back to 1.9800 and below, or a test further back to summer highs--we shall see.. Technicals as I read them seem to say they wanna go test the sumer highs and break them if we can get over the next level of 2.0220.. Given the status of the subprime mortgage issues (and don't forget the MASSIVE layoffs by lenders--that will play a big factor in Jobs coming up!), the dollars econ reports, the Fed band-aid placed on a gaping housing wound and current forecast situation for rate cuts before end of year--Could the GBP be *really* setting up to test 2.1000?? I'm goin out on a limb to say it--but from the chart levels and moves I see now and in past history--we could see an 800+ pip move UP progressively into the Fall on this pair...so IMO--a LONG play on this pair held onto for a while could pay off extremely well....

USD/JPY..I hate this pair. Daily MACD has crossed and turned to the upside...historically when it has done this--a several hundred pip move has followed... We could be looking at 119.00 on this pair shortly...and this may be the only pair that responds in a mediocre dollar positive manner...

EUR/JPY--simply put in the short term I am looking for levels up off 159.50 into the 162.00-163.00 area and is how my Long trade is set up... Longer term seems to show a test to 167.00 again..but need to see how much steam this pair is gonna get off the ECB... Could be slightly whippy and then move tomorrow...

USD/CAD... Wow..currently back down at 1.0500/1.0497..a slow "drift" into 1.0400 to 1.0335 seems likely in the short to mid term....a break up and over 1.0675 would negate this idea...but I don't think we shall see an upturn. CAD has a significantly more stable economy and currency to the USD, tho its showing signs of stress limits being pressed... I'm not expecting a huge amount of move from this pair...yet...CAD has a GDP report out on Friday--premature anticipation may keep this tightly rangebound (between 1.0650 and 1.0385) this week unless US news weakens.

EUR/USD...a possibly slow drift UPwards on this pair IMO is quite possible... 1.3800 seems to be a target but would need a strong ECB catalyst...did I mention Trichet was speaking about interest rates tomorrow morn? Watch for a spike whipsaw move on this pair in the NY session ahead of comments...

AUD/USD... Trade balance due out soon for this pair... Pair still needs to correct its "correction" move from previous weeks more IMO...currently at .8300--needs to be really sitting around .8500 IMO to balance itself for a big touch of the strong resistance above it.

A final word--These are ideas I am toying with and pairs that have caught my eye based off the Daily charts... Info and opinion shared is for amusement and thought producing discussion purposes..you are responsible for your own trades. Its Forex--it will do what it wants...last week several of my trade idea levels happened as I thought--but most were premature and occured days after I thought they would after a retrace stopped me out on the ideas... So nothing is set in stone until it actually gets there and shows validations. Take this for "watch" purposes only--base your trades off what YOU see and agree or disagree with...and we'll see where we end up in the next few days and weeks ahead.

Trade Safe and TRade Smart!
FXW

[daiello]

Hey wolf, sorry haven't been here lately, i told you about that competition, well the first 3 days i started off REAL strong, up 27%, or about 7000$.

Then i took a position, a short in USD JPY, wow, not good. look like it wanted to head down below 114, but it bounced up quick and im still holding, cause i think it will drop off the cliff soon. Currently -55 pips.

[daiello]

Well, you see that HUGE red candle, i went from being down over 70 pips at one point, to up 35 pips, so i am out now, but that looks REALLY ugly, whats the reason?

[daiello]

Well i found the reason. I closed that position the 35 pips before i read it, so i entered a new short position and im up 100 pips right now. I wonder if we see 111

[greencat]

I am watching the EUR/ USD. Its at a fib number and I look for it to make a 100 pip or so move up off of it. The EUR failed with a double top earlier this year and Will be watching it to see how it handles it. A huge pullback would be nice. Because if it cant take out the double top this is going to be an easy play and some easy green-ola.

[greencat]

Nice play on the yen. I have been in a short position sometime on it with just 1 lot. However, I have beem eating it up on the shorter term charts.

If it can hold the prior low its going to be a long slide.

I can't figure the CAD out. Sideways right now and I am not touching it.

[daiello]

Yeah i usually dont touch a pair until i see a trend, the sideways trading ones can really burn you. Made some bucks on the AUD NZD as it seems to have a clear trading pattern.

[ForexWolf]

Originally Posted by greencat

Nice play on the yen. I have been in a short position sometime on it with just 1 lot. However, I have beem eating it up on the shorter term charts.

If it can hold the prior low its going to be a long slide.

I can't figure the CAD out. Sideways right now and I am not touching it.

$/CAD takes a bit to figure out sometimes...drives me crazy but I love trading it when its ripe for the picking.

Right now tho it totally sucks....its in a tight range area goin sideways and no where else....so I'm sittin off to the side watching...and waiting. Check the MACD and Bolly bands on the Hourly--and look at the comparison from last week at Sept 4th...looks pretty similar--eh? :D

Should turn upside in the short term--go long for 1.0585 from 1.0520..but the Daily chart is showing me a stalled pattern goin no where... Its been stuck this way for a few weeks--it will break out...

FXW

[greencat]

Euro has been bullish, but is in danger zone, Cable also is at
potential resistance. And the Swiss chart is near support.

[ForexWolf]

Originally Posted by daiello

Hey wolf, sorry haven't been here lately, i told you about that competition, well the first 3 days i started off REAL strong, up 27%, or about 7000$.

Then i took a position, a short in USD JPY, wow, not good. look like it wanted to head down below 114, but it bounced up quick and im still holding, cause i think it will drop off the cliff soon. Currently -55 pips.

Hey Daiello, sorry I have been busy at home and away from the boards a while...should be back more now. Good luck on the competition..it looks interesting...

FXW